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The chaotic Arab Street is raging violently, uncontrollably, unpredictably and incessantly, from northwestern Africa through Egypt, Syria and Jordan to Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Arab countries are imploding; Iran is galloping towards nuclear capability that haunts Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States; Islamic terrorism is threatening the US mainland via the proliferation of sleeper cells; Pro-US Arab oil-producing regimes are increasingly vulnerable to subversion; the Arab Middle East is growing Islamist and anti-US, jeopardizing vital US economic and national security interests; Turkey has changed colors from a pro to anti-US pillar; and Russia and China deepen their involvement in the region.
However, John Kerry, the well-intentioned US Secretary of State, just paid his fifth visit – since February – to the Middle East, preoccupying himself with the Palestinian issue, which is a sideshow in the volcanic Middle East. The Secretary has ignored this advice: when smothered by lethal sandstorms, one should not be preoccupied with tumbleweeds.
Kerry assumes that the Palestinian issue is a core cause of Middle East turbulence, a crown jewel of Arab policy-making, a trigger of anti-US terrorism and the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict. He believes that progress on the Palestinian front would upgrade the US stature among Arabs and would moderate the region. However, the recent developments on the Arab Street are totally independent of the Palestinian issue, which has never been a Middle East pace-setter. Moreover, the Arab states have always regarded Palestinians as a subversive element, and therefore have showered them with rhetoric, but never with resources. Islamic terrorism has plagued the US despite US pressure on Israel to make sweeping concessions to the Palestinians in 1983 (the US Embassy and Marines Headquarters in Beirut) 1993 (the 1st Twin Tower terrorism), 1995/6 (the Riyadh and Khobar Towers), 1998 (US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania) and 2000 (the USS Cole). No Arab-Israel war erupted because – or on behalf – of the Palestinians, as initially evidenced by the conclusion of the 1948 War of Independence, when Judea & Samaria and Gaza were occupied by Jordan and Egypt, which did not transfer these regions to the Palestinians. Furthermore, no Arab country rallied behind the Palestinians when Israel fought Palestinian terrorism in Lebanon (1982), Judea & Samaria (the 1st and 2nd Intifada) and Gaza (2006, 2008 and 2012).