Next Steps in North Korea Posted By Alan W. Dowd
URL to article: http://frontpagemag.com/2011/12/26/next-steps-in-north-korea/
“North Korea as we know it is over,” according to Victor Cha, Asian affairs specialist to President George W. Bush from 2004 to 2007. “Whether it comes apart in the next few weeks or over several months, the regime will not be able to hold together after the untimely death of its leader, Kim Jong-il.”
For the sake of discussion, let’s stipulate that Cha is correct. If the Kim Dynasty’s days are indeed numbered, what will the end look like?
History offers some helpful, if not always uplifting, examples of how North Korea could collapse.
The ideal parallels—the economic liberalization of China and the bloodless reunification of East and West Germany—also seem the least likely.
The prospect of North Korea following China into quasi-capitalism seems remote, at least for now. This is a closed society, an economy smaller than virtually every state in the U.S., a country whose most lucrative exports are retrofitted Soviet-era missiles and counterfeit $100 bills, a place where citizens are required to donate food to the armed forces.