In presidential election years and midterm years, I have regularly made predictions on the winners, and intend to do the same in the coming months. I think the current cycle is very unsettled. I was skeptical of forecasts for a red wave and giant gains for the GOP, especially in the House, early in the year, and I also don’t think some of the supposedly settled senate races favoring Democrats have really been settled. After reviewing the records of polling firms for many years, it is also apparent that some firms are wrong in one direction routinely and are unreliable. . The Washington Post/ ABC poll had Biden ahead by 17 points in Wisconsin, a week before election day in 2020, in a state he won by 0.7%. Wisconsin, with a few exceptions (when Obama was on the ballot), has always had close statewide contests. I won’t give much weight to the ABC/Post poll on this year ‘s Wisconsin’s senate and governor’s race. If you want the polar opposite-a reliable poll, consider the Des Moines Register surveys, which have tracked results in that state with remarkable accuracy.
I think the GOP has an advantage on issues of concern to most voters-starting with the open border, with illegals numbering close to 4 million crossing in 19 months since Biden decided the best policy was whatever Trump did not do. The migrant surge is from many places, not primarily from Central America or Mexico, and enormous quantities of deadly fentanyl is coming with them. Over 100,000 Americans died of opioid overdoses in a year, which in addition to covid deaths accounts for a loss of 3 years in life expectancy since 2019. Surging crime, especially violent crime and increases in suicide deaths have also contributed. to the life expectancy decline. Nationally, murders are up near 50% in 3 years, as the war on cops initiated by the left and advocacy groups like BLM after George Floyd’s death, led to large jumps in police retirements , the election of district attorneys more sympathetic to criminals than victims, and more aggressive behavior by thugs who think they will likely pay no price for crime.. Today there is much more crime, and many fewer police. It should not be surprising that many people of all races are leaving Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles.
Teachers unions pressed for distance “learning” and it looks like not that much learning took place, with major drops in test scores for public school students, especially those in areas where schools were closed, and particularly among black and Hispanic students. Keeping schools open and teaching basic subjects would do much more for minority kids than DEI initiatives.
Parents who had a chance to see what their kids were learning online, were also shocked to discover how woke politics had moved down the education tree from colleges to high schools, and primary schools. Joe Biden won Virginia by 10%, but Glenn Youngkin defeated a popular former governor by 2% a year later, largely based on a campaign focused on issues, especially education. Americans by enormous margins, believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This usually is not a good sign for the party in power, and incumbents generally.
Then throw in the highest inflation rate in 40 years, a looming or existing recession, rising interest rates, sinking stock prices, and economic fears are growing. All of this favors Republicans.
On the other hand, Democrats will have a huge campaign financing advantage. It is the Republican party which now relies more on small gifts, and Democrats, who are funded by the plutocrats, especially in the tech industry, and the old standbys- Hollywood, trial lawyers, academia, public employee unions. Democrats have had more money to spend, and still have more money on hand to spend in every competitive senate race.
And then there is free media- which also is far more provided to the left than the right. Donald Trump received a lot of free media due to the unusual nature of his candidacy both times he ran. That has changed . Now we have nationally televised prime time coverage of the January 6 commission, with all members of the committee appointed by the Speaker, and all members in the bag with their conclusions before the first day of testimony . Then throw in Hollywood allies of the Democrats stage managing the hearings. Of course, maybe you disagree and think Jamie Raskin was openminded on the subject at the start.
The Democrats have also gotten an enthusiasm boost from the Dobbs decision on abortion rights. This will likely result in a wide gender gap this year, and increased turnout by Democrats, who lagged in this department earlier in the year.
The Democrats are also winning the distraction battle- focusing on January 6, Donald Trump, the GOP’s supposed “semi fascist ultra maga” supporters , the invented “assault on democracy”, the Mar A lago raid, and did I mention Donald Trump? If Trump remains the big news story through November, it will be a good year for Democrats.
It is somewhat amazing that a campaign speech by the president who ran on unifying the country, will be delivered and broadcast in prime time, and enable him to slander half the voting population. Then again, anyone who has seen Biden deliver “remarks” of late, has seen an angry dim-witted man, and maybe this is unappealing to voters who are not locked in their partisan corners. The dim-witted part , of course, has been evident for most of Biden’s career. It is remarkable to consider the cynicism which produced his candidacy (with most of his opponents ordered to drop out after South Carolina) so that the real powers that be could manipulate and hide Biden and avoid a Sanders nomination, which might have sunk the Democrats in 2020.
This is not a pleasant stew to consider digesting, Things are moving in different directions politically. I think it is possible that Republicans win control of both the Senate and House, or that Democrats retain control of both. It is also possible, and maybe a bit more likely, that each party win one of the houses of congress, with Dems ahead in the Senate contest, Republicans in the House. But the races are close, just as the current split between the parties in congress is near equal. And even though, Biden and the Democrats won in 2020 by 7 million votes out of 158 million cast, a shift of 25,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin , (less than 0.3% of the votes in those states), would have enabled Trump to win a second term. If Democrats do not understand why Republicans care so much about the Hunter Biden laptop story and social media cancellation of it, this is because they believe, and it is almost certainly true, that had this story not been suppressed, the evidence of Joe Biden’s corruption might have shifted the few votes needed by Trump to win in 2020 (Biden won all of the states decided by 2% or less). . And it is of course also true that Trump likely would have lost in 2016, had Jim Comey not reopened the Hillary Clinton investigation 11 days before the election, due to the contents on Anthony Weiner’s computer which were words, and not photographs. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all by less than 1% in 2016.
