PRETTY POOR COLUMN ON HOMEGROWN TERROR BY A LAW ENFORCEMENT PERSON
LYDIA KHALIL
THIS IS THE MOST UNSATISFYING ARTICLE BY A LAW ENFORCEMENT TYPE…..A LITTLE SUITCASE CAN DEVASTATE A CITY….AND IT CAN EASILY BE PUT TOGETHER IN A MOSQUE…..RSK
The threat of homegrown terrorism
By Lydia Khalil | October 27, 2009
THE APPREHENSION last week of Sudbury native Tarek Mehanna is the fifth terrorism-related arrest in the United States in as many months, putting homegrown radicalism back on the radar screen. But many question whether individuals like Mehanna are the “real deal.’’ Do they really pose a significant terrorist threat or are they acting out but lack the capability to inflict any real damage? How dangerous are homegrown radicals? Will the United States, like Europe, become more susceptible to native radicals rather than terrorist plots hatched abroad from organized groups like Al Qaeda?
Terrorism specialist Marc Sageman claims that we are facing a “leaderless jihad.’’ Al Qaeda central is not the driving force of terrorism as an operational machine but rather its ideology serves as an inspiration for self-organizing local groups to carry out their own attacks.
But other experts, including Bruce Hoffman, maintain that it is established organizations like Al Qaeda that remain the dominant threat and that we must focus more on the organization and its capabilities rather than random, radicalized individuals.
The pattern of terrorism arrests since 9/11 seems to support the argument that homegrown radicalism is the greatest threat the United States faces and that Al Qaeda has lost its capability to carry out direct attacks outside of its Afghanistan-Pakistan operating base. But just because homegrown plots constitute the majority of those uncovered doesn’t mean that homegrown terrorism is the greatest threat. Many of the homegrown plots have been all talk and little action. Even if the plots were executed, they would have been limited in scope – small explosive and ambush attacks or targeted killings. Mehana allegedly plotted to ambush and shoot shoppers at a mall. While it would have been a tragic incident, it would be nowhere near the scale of 9/11 or the Mumbai attacks.
In addition, there is a significant difference between self-taught would-be terrorists and stealth operators who have had training and contacts overseas like the sophisticated Mumbai attackers, Ramzi Yousef, or Mohamed Atta. Homegrown radicals aren’t able to carry out the sophisticated, coordinated attacks that pose the greatest danger.
There is a limitation on what homegrown plotters can achieve without training and access to networks abroad. Though much has been made of instructional video and propaganda and bomb-making instructions on the Internet, would-be homegrown terrorists without proper explosives training are more likely to blow off their hands as they are to build a proper bomb.
Mehanna tried to obtain jihadi training in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan with little success. He also allegedly had difficulty trying to obtain semi-automatic weapons, let alone explosives. Though homegrown terrorists may have malintent, it is more difficult to carry out a high-caliber terrorist attack without training, funding, explosives, and contacts.
Even though Al Qaeda is no longer the top-down organization it once was, it and its affiliate organizations remain the greatest terrorism threat to the United States. The most significant danger is likely to come from individuals who have been able to network with Al Qaeda operatives or affiliates to develop and carry out a plot.The reason why the terrorism plot associated with Najibullah Zazi, who was also recently arrested, is being called the biggest plot since 9/11 is because Zazi trained at a camp in Pakistan and reportedly had high-level contacts with Al Qaeda militants. Mehanna never made it that far.
Homegrown radicals only become a significant threat when they are able to connect with militant radical groups with significant experience. Anyone can become influenced by militant ideology and change from a middle-class college student to a would-be terrorist. But unless these individuals have access to organized terrorist networks, they are limited to what they can do.
Lydia Khalil, a former counterterrorism analyst for the New York Police Depatment, is a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
© Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company
Comments are closed.
