RUTHFULLY YOURS

UPDATE:SAM CALIGURI FOR CONGRESS CONNECTICUT DISTRICT 5.ELECTIONS ARE COMING

Posted By Ruth King on October 13th, 2010

http://samforcongress.com/   HE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO UNSEAT CHRIS MURPHY WHO VOTED FOR OBAMACARE AND CAP AND TRADE(WITHOUT READING IT!!!)….HE’S BEEN CALLED A “PELOSI PULL TOY RSK   Defending our Nation Sam is committed to defending our nation from enemies at home and abroad. He believes we must make every effort to protect our borders, […]

http://newtown.patch.com/articles/independent-poll-puts-caligiuri-ahead-murphy-says-hes-ahead

A recent independent poll conducted by Merriman River Group has State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R-16) ahead of incumbent Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy (CT-5) by 5.4 points, with Caligiuri polling at 49.7 percent and Murphy at 44.3 percent.

The poll, commissioned by CT Capitol Report, a Connecticut political blog, surveyed 481 likely voters in the 5^th District, with a predicted margin of error of 4.4 percent. Of those surveyed, 6 percent were undecided.

“Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat,” Merriman Group Executive Director Matthew Fitch said in their report. “He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri just outside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50-percent threshold in our survey.”

“We still have a long way to go, but these poll results are very encouraging and echo what I’ve been hearing from people throughout the District,” Caligiuri said, ascribing the tight race to Murphy’s position on economic issues and voters’ disappointment in the Democratic Congress.

“Voters are angry with Murphy’s lockstep support for Nancy Pelosi’s agenda,” Caligiuri said. “The Murphy-Pelosi Congress has made it harder for businesses to create jobs and for people to keep or gain them.”

The next day, the Murphy campaign released internal polling numbers that have their candidate 14 points ahead.

“Chris has always known that this campaign would be competitive, considering the independent nature of the 5th District,” campaign spokesperson Kristen Bossi said about the conflicting polls. “With just a few weeks to go, these numbers show that Chris has strong and growing support, and people are responding to Chris’ focus on job creation in the state.”

The survey commissioned by the Murphy campaign was conducted by Gotham Research Group, who questioned 424 likely voters over the same time period as the Merriman poll. The poll has Murphy garnering 48 percent support to Caligiuri’s 34 percent, with a 4.8 percent margin of error.

Bossi questioned the accuracy of the Merriman poll and its survey method, which uses voice recognition technology as part of its Interactive Voice Response system. He said that in 2008 the firm had California Congresswoman Jane Harman in a dead heat in a race she went to on to win by 17 points.

“These IVR polls are historically wildly inaccurate,” Bossi asserted. “An automated computer survey can’t tell who is actually picking up the phone — a registered voter in the 5^th District or a voter’s 10-year-old cousin visiting from South Carolina.”

Merriman River Group, which has offices in Hamden, CT, and has been conducting polls since 1998, counters that IVR is as accurate as live calls, if not more so. As a recent example, the group points to this year’s August 10 Primaries, where they were the only pollsters to have Dan Malloy beating Ned Lamont in the nomination for governor.

“The 5^th District is shaping up to be the most Republican leaning district in Connecticut this year,” Fitch said. “It is the strongest district for both Tom Foley and Linda McMahon and is also the district least likely to have a positive opinion of President Obama, by a 43-53 margin.”

“Murphy certainly knows how to win this district,” as he has twice before, Fitch pointed out, “but the national mood and the top of the ticket may be too much to overcome.”

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