ANOTHER BEGINNING IN THE ELECTIONS CYCLE….ONWARD TO 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703506904575592522305597634.html?
A More Purple Senate KIM STRASSEL
Democrats are likely to have 21 incumbent senators up for re-election in 2012 (depending on retirements), plus the two independents..
Few were watching yesterday’s results more closely than those senators up for re-election in 2012. Their takeaways may also prove hugely consequential for what happens in Congress over the next year or two.
In the House, those Democrats who do return to Congress next year inevitably come from mostly liberal districts, since blue dogs and moderates took the biggest beating. That’s not the case in the Senate. Democrats are likely to have 21 incumbent senators up for re-election in 2012 (depending on retirements), plus the two independents, Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders. Compare this to the 10 GOP incumbents likely to be on the 2012 ballot. Many of these Democrats hail from states that went for George W. Bush or John McCain, or from states that saw big Republican gains yesterday. These are the senators who may already see themselves as most at risk in the next election cycle.
They include: Bill Nelson of Florida, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jim Webb of Virginia and Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico. All went to sleep last night suspecting their own claim on re-election is much more tenuous. Even relatively safe incumbents such as Herb Kohl of Wisconsin or Maria Cantwell of Washington — also up in 2012 — are likely to feel less secure today.
To be sure, the GOP will have a few senators up who are viewed suspiciously by some conservatives and Tea Party members — such as Maine’s Olympia Snowe and Tennessee’s Bob Corker. But most of the vulnerable are wearing Democratic hats, and their trepidation could make an enormous difference in the Senate Republican leadership’s ability to pass or block legislation — from tax-cut extensions to repeal of certain aspects of ObamaCare to a final burial of climate legislation.
It’s always a long way to 60 votes, but Republicans can likely look forward to a bigger Democratic audience for some of their arguments than they’ve had in a long time.
Comments are closed.
