YORAM ETTINGER:IN AN UNSTABLE REGION ISRAEL CAN ONLY RELY ON ITSELF
Why Security is so Important for Israel….AN INTERVIEW WITH RYAN JONES, ISRAEL TODAY REPORTER
In an unstable region, Israel can only rely on itself
The Tunisian government has fallen, Egyptians are violently demanding reform, and there is speculation that Jordan could be next. On top of it all, Lebanon is more fully under the thumb of Hizballah and Iran than ever before. What does it all mean for Israel? Israel Today reporter Ryan Jones spoke to expert analyst Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, a former Minister at Israel’s Embassy in Washington, DC and Israel’s Consul General to the southwestern US, for the answers.
Israel Today: What do the Tunisian and Egyptian revolts say to us, as Israelis?
Ettinger: The Tunisian and Egyptian turmoil should be a wake-up call for the “New Middle East” folks and remind us of the actual nature of our neighborhood. When we look around at these countries we realize that not much has changed over the past 1,400 years as far as this region being a role model of volatility, unpredictability, instability and violence as the accepted norm for solving problems.
Israel Today: Are there lessons here for Israel?
Ettinger: The tenuous nature of regimes and agreements, this sends a message to everybody, Israel included, in regards to any peace accord concluded with any regime. You sign an accord with a regime, and the following year or decade there is a 180 degree change in the nature of that regime. You cannot then rewind the tape and renegotiate the accord. You are stuck with what you previously agreed to.
So this should proscribe for Israel an extremely high threshold for security, Israel must have very high security requirements. Rather than focus on peace negotiations themselves, the focus for Israel should be on extreme security, the kind of which could withstand the worst case scenario, which as we see now is inevitable in this region.
Israel Today: What must Western power-brokers driving the Israeli-Arab peace process take away from this?
Ettinger: The events in Tunisia, Egypt and probably Jordan should put to rest this over-simplistic, ignorant, detached notion that the Palestinian issue is the root of regional turbulence. The current events prove without any doubt that Middle East turmoil has little to do with the Palestinians, and would be going on even if Israel wasn’t around. The illusion that one needs to pressure Israel in order to stabilize the Middle East has not served to throw water on the Middle East fire, but rather has fueled it. By pressuring Israel and focusing on the Palestinian issue, the West has diverted attention from the real causes of turbulence in the region.
Israel Today: What of Lebanon? Do Hizballah’s gains there portend war on Israel’s northern border?
Ettinger: Like the other nations around, what is happening in Lebanon is all within the same framework of unpredictability. Certainly, there are concerns about Lebanon, which truly has never been independent. It has always been subordinate to Syrian interests, and has always been an arena for intra-Arab conflict. Every few years there is a military eruption. It’s usually domestic, but sometimes spills over into Israel. But as important as Lebanon is, it is more of a testing ground.
Israel Today: So where should Israel be looking?
Ettinger: The most crucial for Israel is its eastern flank, the long border with Jordan, which is Israel’s most vulnerable frontier. That border is only a few miles from 80 percent of the Israeli population and most of Israel’s industrial and transportation infrastructure. This is the border that is most open for a lethal and devastating offensive against Israel. In view of the events in Tunisia and Egypt, the indispensability of the mountains of Judea and Samaria is more and more apparent. For Israel to give away these mountains for so-called peace would be an expression of determination to repeat rather than avoid past mistakes.
To give away these mountains [for a Palestinian state] would literally mean for Israel to give away the most effective tank obstacle in the region and to provide a platform for invasion. And this in a neighborhood that is once again proving itself totally unstable and unpredictable. Only a suicidal tendency could lead a nation to make such a mistake.
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