RE: HERMAN CAIN
I REALLY LIKE CAIN IN SPITE OF HIS FLUBBING BUT A LITTLE SOBRIETY ABOUT HIS CHANCES IS IN ORDER….HERE IS A GOOD ANALYSIS WHICH DOES NOT WRITE HIM OFF….BUT ONLY DEMONSTRATES HOW POLLS ARE OFTEN MISALIGNED WITH PUBLIC SENTIMENT…..RSK
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/the-not-so-simple-case-for-taking-herman-cain-seriously/
As far as Cain, however…the point isn’t really that “candidates without an electoral track record haven’t won the nomination.” It’s that they haven’t really come close. The best showings by candidates who hadn’t been elected to anything were, if I recall correctly, Jesse Jackson’s campaigns in 1984 and 1988; Steve Forbes in 1996 and 2000; and Pat Buchanan in 1996 (and, I suppose, 1992). I certainly wouldn’t count Wes Clark’s 2004 campaign; military heroes, of course, have a long history of winning nominations. I suppose Pat Robertson in 1988, too.
When you come across a candidate like Mr. Cain, who is now doing quite well in the polls despite his lack of media attention, that would seem to compel more of it. It’s a clear a signal as any that press coverage has become misaligned with public sentiment.
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