RUTHFULLY YOURS

On present trends Republicans will have a hard time losing the next Presidential election, but they may be up to the job. Witness the current state GOP rush to jump the early primary queue in a way that could start the voting as early as December.That may be what happens thanks to the Florida GOP’s decision last week to move its primary to January 31 from March. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina—the four states picked by the Republican National Committee to go first—will in turn likely move their caucus or primary dates to early January, if not earlier, from February. Candidates will have to campaign in a rush through the holidays, when voters are especially busy and least able or inclined to pay attention.

Florida politicians claim they must move up their date or risk coming in late and losing a say in the nomination process. House Speaker Dean Cannon says that his “primary consideration is maximizing Florida voters’ voices,” but this is what politicians always say. Florida, a swing state with 29 delegates to the national convention, was already an early priority for most candidates, as it was in 2008. No serious candidate is going to ignore the state.

The real motivation here may be the traditional desire among party elites to settle the nomination early, lest Republicans fight among themselves for too long. Many party pros have already signed up with one candidate or another, and they dread a drawn-out contest that they think will weaken the eventual nominee.

But a drawn-out competition didn’t seem to hurt Barack Obama in 2008, and this year of all years Republicans should want a long vetting process. It’s already October 3, and a rushed calendar means the primary campaign would be over in four or five months. This would help the well known and well-heeled candidates, or those who have been running for years. But it may not help the GOP select the best nominee for this consequential election season when voters are looking for a candidate who can win, rather than the one who is merely next in line.

Republicans should want an extensive audition that introduces their candidates to more voters for a longer period. Larger states like Florida complain that small electorates like those in New Hampshire or the social conservatives in Iowa have an outsized nominating role. But truncating the primary season will only enhance their influence by making it harder for a candidate to recover from even a second or third place finish in either small state.

Unlike party pros, most voters don’t have time or the interest—bless ’em—to follow politics closely. They check in on the contest here and there, perhaps during a debate, or a candidate swing through town, or as their primary contests get close.

Texas Governor Rick Perry only recently entered the race, Herman Cain is getting his first serious look by the national media, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie may still enter. GOP voters should want to see who can take a punch and who is built for the long haul. They should also want their nominee’s potential weaknesses or skeletons exposed during the primary campaign, rather than become fodder for the Obama-MoveOn-Soros-media machine once it’s too late to change.

Under Republican National Committee rules, the Florida GOP will pay for queue-jumping by losing half of its delegates to the nominating convention in Tampa in August. So the claim of enhancing Florida’s voice is false on its face. This has the aroma of an insider play to shut down the primary contest early, and Republicans won’t go along if they want the strongest nominee.