ANNA MAHJAR BARDUCCI: SYRIA…FROM CIVIL WAR TO REGIONAL WAR AND A SHI’ITE AL QAEDA?
Syria, from Civil War to Regional War
The Birth of a “Shi’ite al-Qaeda”?
http://www.hudson-ny.org/2599/syria-civil-war-regional-war
In Syria, there is a civil war that could soon spread into a regional one. Every day, the Syrian regime is kills civilians. In four days, fo example, from November 10 to November 13, the toll of civilians killed by the regime was 115. As reported by Syrian writer Ammar Abdulhamid’s website, the Syrian opposition has now decided to organize militarily to topple the regime and put an end to the President Bashar Al-Assad’s repression and its loyalists, officially marking the beginning of the civil war.
The Free Syrian Army, formed by soldiers who defected from the Syrian Regime’s Army, has announced the formation of a new Military Council, which will dissolve once a democratically elected government takes charge of Syria. “The main goals of the council include: toppling the regime, protecting citizens, protecting public and private property and preventing chaos and any acts of vengeance once the regime has been toppled,” Abdulhamid reports. Noteworthy is that members of the council cannot take part in “political party or religious movement.”
In the meantime, while the opposition is preparing to fight the regime’s army, the editor-in-chief of Al-Quds Al-Arabi, Abd El Bari Atwan, already foresees the “internationalization” of the Syrian civil war, which will also have the involvement of Middle Eastern countries siding against Assad. Atwan mentions that the first step to the internationalization of the crisis will be the establishment of a buffer zone on the border with Turkey, and probably another in the south, on the border with Jordan.
The Saudi newspaper Al-Riyadh mentions that Assad, if he will not be stopped in time, might try to destabilize the entire Middle East with the help of Hezbollah, Iran and pro-Iranian factions in Iraq. “The region is likely to be hit by a wave of terrorism that will be launched this time by countries and religious parties. In other words, we might assist to the birth of a Shiite ‘Al-Qaeda’,” Al-Riyadh states, explaining that in order to ease the pressure on Assad, pro-Iranian organizations will use terror to deter foreign intervention. In this scenario, Iran will also use other organizations as the PKK and dormant cells in the Gulf to avoid the fall of the Syrian regime and its isolation.
According to Al-Riyadh the international community should act immediately against Iran, starting by toppling its ally, Syria — a serious blow to Teheran. If no action takes place, Al–Ryiadh stresses, the international community will continue to be held hostage by a group of people “who abide by no human rights, traditions, and universal values.”
The Saudi newspaper Okaz reports that Morocco recently hosted an Arab-Turkish forum with the presence of Arab Foreign Ministers and the Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, to assess a strategy to topple Assad. At the meeting, Arab countries mentioned the failure of a dialogue initiative and the need for at least a 50 km buffer-zone on the border with Turkey to protect civilians.
Ankara, hwever, suggested a narrower buffer-zone, indicating worries about Assad’s relation opposing Turkey. Okaz stressed that the Syrian regime is harboring members of the Kurdish terrorist group, PKK, which lately targeted Turkish cities. Ankara seems concerned that Assad might try to sponsor PKK attacks inside Turkey in retaliation against Turkish support for the Syrian opposition.
Turkey, however, seems also to fear Iran: to protect Assad, Turkey’s main ally in the region, Iran might give weapons to the PKK as well as logistical suppport. The Turkish journalist Emre Uslu wrote in the Turkish paper Zaman that the PKK and Iran have realized that, as the political map of the Middle East changes, they both need each other. The turmoil in Syria has brought “Iran and the PKK together to establish a new axis between the two to open a new corridor between Iran and Syria through Kurdistan in northern Iraq,” Uslu states.
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