NIDRA POLLER: FRANCE’S PRESIDENT HOLLANDE CLAMORS FOR “CHANGE”
http://dispatch-international.com/content/fran%C3%A7ois-hollande-warpath
French President still clamors for “change” but nothing moves
PARIS. True to his branding as “the normal president,” President François Hollande moved—slowly – up to the front lines this week in an effort to rescue his government from tumbling approval ratings (40 percent satisfied). His Sunday night appearance on the TF1 channel was the same as usual: soporific delivery of a common ordinary discourse punctuated with occasional gesticulations to give an impression of determination. During the 25-minute interview with star newscaster Claire Chazal, Hollande kept reiterating his campaign refrain: I set the course, I set the pace. The pace is slow, the course is foggy, the reaction is embarrassed in his camp and, of course, harsh everywhere else. Le Monde, headlined its web article: “Hollande is personally committed to the combat.” If that is big news four months into his presidential term, then it might explain why so many of those who voted for him are already disappointed. Le Monde columnist Françoise Fressoz explains the discrepancy between the campaign slogan “le changement c’est maintenant” (change is right now) and today’s sluggish pace: “Change”, she says, meant turning the “Sarkozysme” page.
But has François Hollande changed radically since last spring? Has the global economic situation suddenly worsened? Was the flat delivery in the TF1 interview much different from his campaign speeches and television appearances? The answer is no. What has changed is that the Sarkozy veil—not the former president but a magical image of him—has been removed, revealing realities that should have been exposed and analyzed during the campaign. If voters had clearly seen a choice between the Socialist platform and Sarkozy’s program, the outcome may have been different. Since very few citizens are active in political parties, attend campaign rallies or have direct access to candidates, we must conclude that they get their information from the media. Print media in France have notoriously low circulation; most voters get their information from radio and television, where they were enflamed with enthusiasm and persuaded that the election of a Socialist president after all these years was imperative.
Nicolas Sarkozy was battered with criticism. He had done nothing to reduce unemployment, boost the economy, block delocalization or improve security. He was the friend of the wealthy and every measure taken from the first day of his presidency favored the rich and trod on the downtrodden. His campaign promises were ridiculed. He said he’d pull growth up to 3 percent with his bare hands and now look where we are. As if that weren’t enough, he blames it on the global crisis. He hit the ground running and hollering “work harder, earn more” and all we got was work like slaves and earn less. The message was simple: get rid of Nicolas Sarkozy and change would be immediate.
Hollande marketed himself as the “normal president”, with frequent references to the Scandinavian model –a modest president who lives like an ordinary citizen, does the grocery shopping, bicycles to his office. One of his major accomplishments has been traveling by train. That was a symbol and, as he explained to the 10 million viewers tuned in to TF1, another strong symbol is on its way – the 75 percent tax on annual income over and above €1,000,000. It will concern two or three thousand taxpayers, will not generate significant revenue, but it will show the big earners that they have to be patriotic and contribute to the nation’s welfare. He suggested that the measure might be temporary … two years perhaps. Perhaps there will be no one left in France to tax at that level two years from now? In fact this extravagant measure has a punitive effect that reinforces the resentment of rich people hoarding their ill-gotten gains. Even though it will be inflicted on the glitzy rich as well – movie stars, soccer players, and the like – the real target is the greedy capitalist, the speculator, the bad guy who turns a profit. The Far Left parties that contributed decisively to Hollande’s victory and, subsequently, gave the Left a majority in the legislature, want to rule corporations with an iron hand. If they had their way, no company that earns profits and distributes dividends could fire employees or refuse their demands for salary increases. It would seem that the very notion of economic development through the investment of, precisely, earned profits, is totally absent from the French public mind, as if it were a shameful black market.
François Hollande was welcomed by the media as the president who would pacify a population worn to a frazzle by Sarkozy’s frantic activity. Now that he has settled into a rocking chair of limp excuses, his erstwhile admirers are losing patience. The candidate Hollande who blamed the Sarkozy government for unemployment, austerity, and injustice, is now forced to announce tax increases that will weigh not only on the filthy rich but on anyone who earns a living wage. Unemployment just reached the 3 million milestone; the president says his government is dealing with the problem … in the form of 100,000 “emplois d’avenir” – subsidized, essentially public sector jobs for under-qualified young workers – and the “contrats de generation”– subsidized jobs for companies that hire a young worker without firing a senior. Hollande promises to reverse the unemployment trend by the end of 2013. No economist has been found to publicly affirm that it can be done with predicted growth of less than one percent. The muscled campaign promise to renegotiate the EU stability pact has fallen off the table without a thud.
In a desperate effort to decrease labor costs without provoking the ire of the unions, the president is toying with the idea of shifting some of the burden onto an increased CSG (“General Social Contribution”). The Sarkozy government was about to increase the VAT but that was branded socially unjust and axed by the incoming government. The CSG is an interesting precedent! It was a temporary deduction of 1.1 percent on all revenue initiated by then PM Michel Rocard to fill the “hole” in the Social Security budget. The idea was that everyone would chip in a few cents on everything earned, the hole would be filled, and the CSG would wither away. That was 21 years ago, the CSG is now at 7.7 percent and another deduction, the CRDS (“Contribution to Repay the Social Debt”), was added in 1996. They haven’t filled any holes, they eat holes into everyone’s earnings, and they are an accountant’s headache. To my knowledge, no government has reduced or simplified these patch-up contributions.
The choice this Spring was between pursuing an attempt to make the structural changes that would liberate the French economy from outmoded constraints while hopefully weathering the global economic storm, or falling back into the flat-earth economic system in which everyone stands still while you take from the rich, give to the needy, and scoop out a big helping for the government as it transits.
No one could have guaranteed the success of the modernization path but the failure of flat-earth economics should have been obvious three months ago, not suddenly discovered today.
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