JAN POLLER: SMIRKIN’ JOE AND THE ELECTORATE
Smirkin’ Joe gave us quite a show in the VP debate. He was quite the comedian. What could be funnier than the idea that Iran is 4 years closer to a nuclear weapon than they were 4 years ago? Maybe the idea that they didn’t have a delivery system is funnier? Maybe the idea that Smirkin’ Joe did think that Iran could put a nuke on a commercial plane and fly it over New York or Washington or stick one on a ship and sail it into New York is funnier – except it is serious.
I think Smirkin’ Joe succeeded in his attempt to keep people from hearing what Paul Ryan had to say. But did he succeed in bringing out the voters for the Obama-Biden ticket?
Did he get support by telling us that we (He and, presumably, President Obama) Obama had no clue what went on in Libya a week after it occurred when there is testimony that people in the Department of State knew what was happening as it happened from a live feed from Benghazi?
There are people like me who won’t vote for President Obama even if he walked across the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) carrying two heavy stone tablets with an additional 11 commandments including one that says “Thou Shalt Vote Democratic”. Nothing he says or does at this late date will cause us to vote for him. If anything, Smirkin’ Joe’s behavior will bring us out to vote him out of office.
On the other side are Voters who will vote for President Obama no matter what he does. They will justify anything he does, even if he declares that he will be voted President for Life and confiscates all of their wealth to give to those who have no wealth at all. Voting Democratic is their religion and overrides everything including their own self-interest and the inters of their children and grand-children.
The next tier of voters is committed to their candidate but drastic behavior by either could change their vote.
Will the Romney supports be less or more inclined to vote because of the Comedian’s making light of life-and-death situations? Some might but I doubt that many will. On the-other-hand, it might make more of them come out to both.
Some President Obama supporters may solidify their pro-Obama position on the basis that Smirkin’ Joe really put Ryan in his place. A few might be turned off enough to switch to Romney but they would largely be offset by Republicans who switched to Obama.
That leaves us with the truly undecided. It is a safe assumption to think that the vast majority of them watch the Biden-Ryan debate to help them make a choice.
Did they want to hear style points or factual, material points? Those that are swayed by style might well go with Smirkin’ Joe. Those that wanted to hear the Ryan-Romney position will most likely be swayed to vote for Romney-Ryan.
Although I haven’t seen any polls since the debate, my guess is that more independents will go for Romney and that the other groups will be pretty much of a wash. Will it change the electoral vote count? I think it will in one or two states. I don’t think the Obama-Biden ticket gained from their disruptive behavior.
Tomorrow night’s Obama-Romney debate will have a bigger effect. Much depends on Candy Crowley and Romney’s willingness to go beyond biased questions.
I do not see how President Obama can gain support by claiming that he knew nothing about was going on. I don’t see him gaining support by saying that it was a video when his State Department and Intelligence people testified that they never thought it was an obscure YouTube video that cause the riots and the deadly assault.
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