VENEZUELA AFTER HUGO CHAVEZ By MARY ANASTASIA O’GRADY
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Is Hugo Chávez dead or alive? And if he is dead, won’t that make it difficult for him to take the oath of office on Thursday—when he is supposed to be sworn in as the Venezuela’s president for another six-year term?Inquiring Venezuelans want to know. It has been four weeks since Mr. Chávez left the country for cancer surgery in Havana, and he has yet to make a postoperative public appearance. The details of his illness and his prognosis have remained a state secret since June 2011, when he announced that he had cancer.
The government only will say now that he is suffering a severe respiratory infection that makes it difficult for him to breath. But as time goes by the speculation that he is not going to recover is increasing.
Even Cuba, which holds considerable sway over the Venezuelan military and the country’s intelligence apparatus, would have trouble pulling off a “Weekend at Bernie’s” inauguration. Which explains why the president of the Venezuelan national assembly, Diosdado Cabello, announced on Saturday that Mr. Chávez will remain the president after Thursday whether he shows up for the inauguration or not.
This is a violation of the constitution, which says he must take the oath on Jan. 10 before the National Assembly or the Supreme Court. But it is hardly a surprise. Dragging Mr. Chávez across the finish line is a high priority and the government began to lay the groundwork for this Plan B last week when the realization hit that he won’t make it under his own power.
One hint was visible on state television, where reporters tried to stir up the passions of the president’s supporters by telling them that the opposition is rooting for his death. The hateful rhetoric toward government critics—who have long hoped that without Chávez there would be no chavismo—is designed to discourage them from insisting on the constitutional path. Push back against our diktat, the not-so-subtle warning goes, and risk the ire of the people.
The death of a head of state introduces risks for any nation. Because Mr. Chávez’s 14-year rule has been built around a cult of his personality and because he has so polarized the country, his passing is likely to be more than merely disruptive. The question of how to handle the inauguration deadline has been one problem for the Chávez crowd. But there is also looming economic difficulty.
The official rate of the Venezuelan bolivar is now 4.3 to the dollar but in the black market it costs more than 17 bolivars to buy a dollar. This suggests that whoever inherits the presidency is likely to have to manage a sharp and painful devaluation.
The populist Mr. Chávez would skillfully demagogue his way through such a crisis. But it is doubtful that either Vice President Nicolas Maduro or Mr. Cabello—the two understudies who will play the most important roles after a Chávez death—would do as well. This means that things have to be tightly tamped down when the day of devaluation presents itself.
If Venezuela were to follow the constitution, Mr. Chávez’s “absolute absence” would mean that Mr. Cabello would be named interim president. He would have to call an election in 30 days. Mr. Maduro would probably be the candidate.
It would be in the interest of the government to call that election as soon as possible. The longer it waits, the further the bolivar can be expected to sink. The Chávez side would also benefit from the sympathy vote in the immediate aftermath of his death, while the opposition would risk looking insensitive. Plus, there would be little time to organize behind a single opposition candidate, a crucial process for a win.
But the chavistas have had plenty of vulnerabilities of their own, starting with infighting between rivals: More than one member of Mr. Chávez’s inner circle wants his job. As the man anointed by the ailing president as his successor, Mr. Maduro, a former union leader, is first in line and word has it that Cuba thinks he would be the easiest to control. But Mr. Cabello, who is close to the armed forces and reportedly has a strong nationalist streak, has been making his own play for the top spot.
Cuba recognized the danger and last week moved to resolve the problem. When the top leadership flocked to Havana, it was ostensibly to be near the cancer-stricken Chávez. The real reason for the trip may have had little to do with praying at the comandante‘s bedside. On Saturday El Nuevo Herald reported that sources told it Cuba has been trying to fashion a Venezuelan “junta” that would pull the various factions together and preserve chavismo.
Apparently Cuba has decided that to do that, Mr. Chávez—dead or alive—must be retained as “president.”
Write to O’Grady@wsj.com
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