RICHARD BAEHR: NETANYAHU’S WIN AND OBAMA’S ELECTION WOES
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12005
It is the morning after in Israel, and there are a few developments worth noting. As Bill Kristol joked on Twitter:
”BREAKING: British PM Cameron, in close re-election contest, has called WH to ask that Obama intervene against him.”
David Cameron might be the first in a string of elected international leaders calling for help for their opponents given U.S. President Barack Obama’s track record since he took office.
For if there is one consistent political story that has emerged about Obama, it is his unique ability to destroy his political allies. After his landslide victory in the presidential contest following the financial collapse in 2008, the Democratic Party held 60 Senate seats (after one party switch) and 258 House seats. Today, after two disastrous midterm routs, the Democrats have fallen into the minority with 46 Senate seats and 188 House seats. The House total is the lowest for the party in nearly a century.
On the state level, the Democratic Party is in similar (terrible) shape. Republicans are the governors in 31 of the 50 states, and have a significant majority in legislative seats and legislative chambers held, their best position since the 1920s.
The Democratic Party has no “bench” at the national level, with impressive new candidates to step up if Hillary Clinton decides not to run for the White House in 2016, unless of course Vice President Joe Biden, former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders or former Virginia Senator Jim Webb, gets you excited. Despite her lack of appeal and early missteps, Clinton will likely continue her lifelong obsession to get to the White House as the first female president.
However, unlike the free ride Obama has received from the national press (due mainly to fear of criticizing him due to his race), Clinton will not be similarly sheltered from media attacks. A recent “Saturday Night Live” mockery provides an indication of what is likely in store for the former First Lady.
The White House campaign against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took several forms — from financial support for his opponents from State Department accounts, campaign professionals shuttled off to Israel to gin up the vote among anti-Netanyahu voters and a relentless campaign designed to convince Israeli voters that another few years of Netanyahu would be a nightmare scenario for Israel in its relations with the United States.
In particular, a defeat for Netanyahu would have severely damaged the will by Democrats in Congress to fight the Obama deal with Iran. The Iran agreement is all but signed, and ready for U.N. Security Council approval before anyone in the White House sees fit to give the Congress a say in the matter, since they are treating the agreement as an executive action, not a treaty. All that is needed to wrap the deal up is a few more statements by Secretary of State Kerry on how hard they are pressing the Iranians for concessions, and some more “Death to America” cheerleading by the ayatollahs so that it appears that a deal was a tough slog, rather than a giveaway by the P5+1, who have caved in every major area from their original negotiating position when talks which included the Americans began. A final indicator that the deal is done, as if there were not enough of them out there, was the new national intelligence assessment, which removed Iran and Hezbollah from the list of terror threats, focusing instead only on Islamic State.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton offered this assessment of the change: ”The people who would say [that Iran and Hezbollah don’t appear because] of a format change are weasels … lying weasels. You ask yourself how could this happen? I think there is a pretty clear explanation. I think the Iranian negotiators told the American negotiators you have got to start going easy on us on this terrorism stuff because what they want is not simply to be freed from the sanctions that were imposed because of the nuclear program, they want to be freed from the sanctions that have been imposed 30-plus years because of their state sponsorship of terrorism. So what we’re having now is Orwellian example of disappearing references to Iran and its proxy Hezbollah from the terrorism report.”
A victory for the Left (and Herzog) in the Israeli elections would have softened the Israel message on the Iran deal, and made it harder for skeptics in Congress to maintain their opposition, especially for Democrats forced to challenge the leader of their own party. Now, that opposition is likely to be revitalized. In the Senate, the list of Democrats willing to join with Republicans is approaching a near veto-proof majority of 67 Senators demanding that Congress get to review the Iran deal before it is finalized. The White House is already doing heavy duty lobbying to stall the movement of Democrats toward support for the legislation proposed by Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, but Netanyahu’s dramatic and decisive victory on Tuesday is going to make the White House effort more difficult.
There were other implied or expressed threats during the campaign — including that the administration might be reluctant to provide Israel with veto support in the Security Council on issues affecting the Jewish state. Netanyahu’s statement late in the campaign that he was not going to allow the creation of a Palestinian (terror) state in the West Bank to match what is now the case in Gaza, is sure to further anger White House dreamers who believe a deal between Israel and the Palestinians is there to be had, if only Israel were more forthcoming. The professional peacemaker crowd — the likes of Martin Indyk, Daniel Kurtzer, and Dennis Ross, and their media cheerleaders, would have nothing to say if they did not blast their two-state solution bromides so regularly.
Of course, the White House has been silent, with no acknowledged communication of any sort from the president to congratulate the prime minister for his victory. The White House was quick to congratulate leaders they like better when they won election victories — Vladimir Putin, Rouhani in Iran, Erdogan in Turkey.
This is consistent with the boycott the administration organized and sponsored to detract from Netanyahu’s speech to Congress a few weeks back. The administration rightfully feared Netanyahu might offer a different and more convincing argument about why the deal the administration was running toward with their tongues hanging out, was actually a bad deal, and not just for Israel. Nothing can be allowed to interfere with the administration’s narratives, whether it be “hands up, don’t shoot” or this is a new Iran, no longer a nuclear threat, and ready to assume a responsible regional role and join the community of nations.
Why would the administration congratulate Netanyahu on his election victory, when no member of the administration was willing to attend his address to Congress, or meet with him when he was in the United States, not to mention the very transparent White House campaign to help Netanyahu’s election opponents?
One other point about this administration that should be obvious by now — they have an enemies list, and it is permanent, and Israel is on it. Obama would have lobbied a Herzog government for concessions to the Palestinians and told it to shut off any critique of the Iran deal. Then the two countries could be “friends” again for a short period, until the first time Israel refused to comply with some White House pressure.
The White House envisions a relationship with Israel that makes Israel a vassal, not a partner or an ally.
Israel, however, is an independent country which is and can be self-reliant.
As Caroline Glick argues, it will not be an easy next 22 months for Netanyahu and Israel, but showing a spine and following your national self-interest is the right way to go. Capitulation only produces more demands from those who do not have your interests at heart.
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