Uncertain of Obama, Arab States Gear Up for War By David Schenker And Gilad Wenig
http://www.wsj.com/articles/david-schenker-and-gilad-wenig-uncertain-of-obama-arab-states-gear-up-for-war-1427662165
A pan-Arab coalition with a patchy record steps up as Yemen falls apart and U.S. policy remains unclear.
Few organizations boast a reputation of dysfunction comparable to the Arab League’s. Over seven decades the Arab League has distinguished itself through infighting and fecklessness. But now, with the Obama administration seen as missing in action in the Middle East, the alliance of 22 countries is undergoing a renaissance. Over the weekend, the Arab League met in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and endorsed the creation of an intervention force to fight terrorism in the Middle East.
Regional backing for the force came days after a mostly Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes targeting the Iran-backed, nominally Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, who last week sacked the provisional capital of Aden and drove Yemen President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi into exile.
While developments in Yemen added to the urgency, discussions about a pan-Arab force have been under way for months. The main driver is Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, whose country faces a terrorism problem, and he is supported by such key Sunni Arab leaders as King Abdullah II of Jordan and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.
“The task of the force,” Arab League Secretary General Nabil el-Araby said on March 26, “will be rapid military intervention to deal with security threats to Arab nations.” These threats include groups like the Houthis and Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq.
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The concept of an Arab military force isn’t new. Since its establishment in 1945, the Arab League has deployed several peacekeeping and expeditionary forces, with decidedly mixed results. The so-called Arab Deterrent Force was established in 1976 to help end the Lebanese civil war. In the end, the force facilitated the Syrian army’s decades-long presence in Lebanon.
In 1982 the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) contributed troops to the Peninsula Shield Force, a detachment intended to counter Iranian subversion. With the exception of a 2011 deployment to repress a popular uprising in Bahrain, though, the 40,000-strong unit has never seen combat.
Seven Arab states participated in the U.S.-led liberation of Kuwait in 1991. After the war, the GCC agreed in principle to build a regional military inclusive of Egypt and Syria, but the effort stalled. The delay led then-chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Lee Hamilton, to take Washington’s Gulf allies to task: “What they are really doing is relying on the U.S. as their security guarantor. And if they get into trouble again, they are going to blow the whistle.”
Notwithstanding Mr. Hamilton’s warning, Washington has served reliably as the guarantor of Gulf security for much of the past 25 years. But lately, as the Obama administration has moved closer to a nuclear deal with Iran—and as Tehran has expanded its influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen—Washington’s traditional Sunni allies are increasingly concerned about a diminished U.S. commitment.
The willingness of Arab states to finally sacrifice blood and treasure to defend the region from terrorism and Iranian encroachment is a positive development. But it also represents a growing desperation in the shadow of Washington’s shrinking security role in the Middle East.
After the start of the Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen, United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash described the intervention as “a new page of Arab cooperation for security in the region.” Although the initial progress was promising, it is not clear the enthusiasm will endure—or be effective.
The most important Arab League contribution in Yemen would be a troop deployment. But it is far from clear that Arab states would be willing to sustain casualties. Cairo has indicated that it would send combat troops to Yemen, yet the Egyptian public may be sensitive to fatalities: 50 years ago Egypt lost 26,000 soldiers in an ill-fated military intervention in Yemen. Saudi Arabia deployed troops to fight the Houthis in 2009-10 but withdrew after three months when casualties started to mount.
There are also concerns about the military capabilities of Arab coalition partners. While Sudan, Jordan and Egypt have contributed air assets to the Yemen campaign, these states reportedly cannot fly night sorties. Consider that in the past four months, Arab allies in the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition have conducted only about 8% of airstrikes in Syria and Iraq. Already, just days into the campaign, Saudi Arabia and Sudan have reportedly lost aircraft. In the absence of a significant U.S. role, logistics maintenance and interoperability may also pose problems.
Then there is the matter of priorities. The Saudis and the Emiratis are narrowly focused on reversing Iranian gains in Yemen. Egypt, whose economy is underwritten by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, considers Gulf security paramount.
But Cairo has other, more proximate strategic concerns. In addition to a burgeoning ISIS-led insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula, Libya is fast becoming a failed state. Earlier this year, 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians were executed by ISIS in Libya. Terrorists and weapons continue to flow across the frontier.
There is also the question of where Washington stands on more robust regional Arab military action. In February the Obama administration condemned Egypt for retaliatory airstrikes against ISIS in Libya. More recently, though, the White House welcomed Arab-coalition efforts in Yemen and is providing logistical and intelligence support.
But will Washington—which is providing air support to Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq targeting ISIS—provide similar backing to the Sunni Arab force? Based on how the Arab League is proceeding, the Arabs don’t appear to be counting on it.
Mr. Schenker is the director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where Mr. Wenig is a research associate.
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