HERBERT LONDON: ROUHANI WINS…WE LOSE
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In discussing the Cold War, President Ronald Reagan said his strategy is simple, “We (U.S.) win and they (Russia) lose.” On the basis on the current comprehensive plan with Iran, that statement seems like ancient history. Iranian President Rohani in addressing the agreement said, all of the goals we aspired to in these negotiations have been achieved. In effect he is suggesting, “We win and we lose.”;
Iran had four goals and each, in turn, has been achieved.
As Rohani noted, “the first was to continue nuclear capabilities, the nuclear technology and even nuclear activity.” In the beginning of negotiation the P5+1 said Iran could have 100 centrifuges; after many deliberations, they arrived at a mutually agreed level of over 6000 centrifuges, over 5000 of which will be in Natanz and over 1000 in Fordo. All centrifuges at Natanz will continue to enrich uranium.
Moreover, the period of restrictions on nuclear development, i.e. the bomb, was to be 20 years, a point the P5+1 said was firm. But in the final days of negotiation, there was agreement at 8 years. On the issue of research and development, there was initial insistence on low level capable centrifuges, but here too concessions were made so that Iran can inject gas into the advanced IR-8 centrifuge thereby accelerating the enrichment process. On the heavy water reactor at Arak, President Rohani contends, “This reactor will be completed with the same heavy water nature and with the characteristics noted in the agreement.” At Fordo there is one cascade of 164 centrifuges, but over 1000 centrifuges will be installed at this facility for the purpose of “R&D on stable isotopes.”;
The second Iranian aim was “to remove the mistaken, oppressive and inhuman sanctions.” On the day of the agreement all sanctions – even the embargo on weapons, missiles and proliferation – will be lifted. All financial and banking sanctions and those related to insurance, transportation, petrochemicals, precious metals and other economic sanctions will be completely eliminated, “not frozen.”
The third goal is to have the Security Council revoke the anti-Iran resolutions. Under the agreement approved by the Security Council, all previous resolutions against Iran for violations and non-compliance with the IAEA will be revoked. In other words, despite overwhelming evidence that Iran violated the non-proliferation treaty and rejected its own promises, the historic record has been wiped clean.
Last, in conjunction with the third goal, the nuclear dossier of Iran and its misdeeds will be completely removed from the Security Council after 10 years of implementation of the agreement, “and regardless of the IAEA.” Here too the IAEA’s prior investigations and even future ones are subject to deracination.
What this agreement has done from Rohani’s point of view is legitimate Iran as a nuclear power, ignoring its role as the leading state sponsor of terror and a nation responsible for the death of at least 1000 Americans. No wonder Iran celebrates. This agreement is a victory the Shia have sought for 1400 years since the split with the Sunni majority.
Now the pathway for Iran’s political ambitions are set. From the Iranian point of view, Rohani has performed a small miracle; he has brought the United States and the U.N. to recognize Iranian ambitions.
Needless to say, President Obama will not accept Rohani’s rhetoric. He will maintain a victory for “peace,” but in objective terms, the Iranian statement may be closer to the truth than Obama’s claims about the accord.
In a sense, Leo Tolstoy anticipated this administration’s position on Iran when he wrote: “I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.” Here, then, is the Obama stance.
Herbert London is a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and the President of the London Center for Policy Research. He is president emeritus of Hudson Institute and author of the book The Transformational Decade (University Press of America).
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