North Korea’s Nuclear Gambit Is Kim Jong Un Angling for his Own Version of Iran’s Nuclear Deal?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-nuclear-gambit-1442359142
Critics of the Iran nuclear deal often point to Bill Clinton’s nuclear accord with North Korea as a reference point for what we can expect next, and this week we were given a fresh lesson on that score. Satellite imagery shows Pyongyang is reactivating its plutonium reactor at Yongbyon, and now the regime has publicly threatened to produce more bombs and test another long-range ballistic missile.
That isn’t the nuclear-free future Mr. Clinton promised in 1994, when he claimed “the entire world will be safer” thanks to a deal that required Pyongyang to “freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program.” Oh well. For now, the interesting question is why Pyongyang is again rattling its nuclear saber. There may be an Iran angle here, too.
Put yourself in Kim Jong Un’s Gucci loafers. Your economy is in worse shape than usual, you’re unsure of your grip on power, and you’ve recently executed your fourth defense minister in three years. What’s a young dictator to do?
Iran provides an intriguing model. Here a regime that had its own recent brush with severe economic distress succeeded in parlaying its nuclear program into a diplomatic bonanza. This includes the removal of most sanctions, tens of billions in cash, hundreds of billions in potential investment, the retention of most of its nuclear infrastructure, and the promise of an eventual lifting of an arms embargo. Iran didn’t even have to change its bellicose rhetoric or behavior to get a deal, and the U.N. will let it inspect some of its own military sites.
That must seem like a sweet deal to Kim, which may be why he’s drawing attention to his nuclear arsenal in classic North Korean fashion. The fact that the Obama Presidency has only 16 months to go must add urgency to his diplomatic calculus. He needs to act fast if he wants a deal before a new U.S. President takes over. If a deal is reached, Kim knows that he can then violate it at will without paying too steep a price.
We have praised President Obama’s reluctance to negotiate with Pyongyang. Still, if a regime without nuclear weapons can reap such a windfall, it’s no wonder that the nuclear North might think it can do even better. Given what this Administration showed it was willing to concede to Tehran, watch for Kim to keep acting up to lure the U.S. back to the negotiating table.
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