RUTHFULLY YOURS

Amid Slumping Economy, Canada’s Stephen Harper Braces for Tight Election Race By Jacquie McNish and Paul Vieira…see note please

Posted By Ruth King on October 19th, 2015

http://www.wsj.com/articles/amid-slumping-economy-canadas-stephen-harper-braces-for-tight-election-race-1445211094

P.M. Stephen Harper has been Israel’s staunchest ally during his entire tenure. Justin Trudeau his liberal opposition, is the son of the late P.M. Pierre Trudeau and has been, like his father, warm to Israel but not with the commitment of Harper….stay tuned….rsk

Economic slump and voter fatigue with ruling Conservatives help Liberals make gains ahead of Monday vote

LONDON, Ontario—Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, after nearly a decade in power, heads into Monday’s federal election caught in a tight race for his political survival.

One of the West’s longest serving leaders, Mr. Harper is seeking to win a fourth term. But voter fatigue with his ruling Conservative party and a slump driven by a collapse in oil and metal prices have helped the opposition Liberals—led by Justin Trudeau, son of the former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau—edge ahead in polls in the last weeks of the race.

Issues beyond Canada’s slumping economy have also dogged Mr. Harper’s campaign, including a scandal over lawmakers’ expense accounts and controversies over his government’s recent decision not to take in more Syrian refugees and to push for a ban on the right of women to wear the face-covering niqab while taking citizenship oaths. In a survey of 1,000 Canadians by Ottawa pollster Nanos Research last week, 71% said it was time for a change in government.

Running on the Conservatives’ economic track record hasn’t helped the prime minister. Canada—the biggest trading partner of the U.S.—has weathered commodities boom-and-bust cycles before, but its growth has become more heavily dependent on the engines of mining and energy.

As a result, the country’s economic performance this year has been the worst among a small group of rich countries that depend heavily on resources, such as Norway and Australia. Canada has been the only Group of Seven country to record two straight quarters of decline in 2015.

ENLARGE

The weakened position of Canada’s once-robust manufacturing hubs, such as London in Ontario, shows the extent to which falling commodity prices have rippled across the economy and driven voter discontent.

Kevin Schildroth is general manager of London-based steel fabricator Abuma Manufacturing Ltd., which retooled its production to focus on the energy sector when lower-cost Asian competitors started beating it out of orders for water filtration equipment—only to run into the price collapse in crude oil. In the past three elections, he has voted Conservative. But in the hours before the polls opened Monday, he said he was contemplating a switch. “There is,” he lamented, “no federal plan to make manufacturing companies strong again.”

Companies such Abuma are staring unhappily at what now seems a losing business plan, having tied the future of their business on Canada’s once-booming resource sector. Trade numbers show that the weakened Canadian dollar, which has fallen 20% with declining commodity prices since mid-2014, has yet to give Canadian exporters the boost they expected. Some economists and policy makers say that puzzle is partly explained by a decadelong decline in manufacturing that has hollowed out the sector’s ability to bounce back.

Across the country, more than 450,000 manufacturing jobs have disappeared over the past decade, according to the national statistics agency. London, a factory-filled city of 366,000 that, like its larger British namesake, sits on a river named the Thames, has lost more than 2,000 manufacturing jobs since the last federal election in 2011. After plant closures by major employers such as Caterpillar Inc. and Kellogg Co., the city’s unemployment rate of 7.3% hovers above the national average of 7.1%.

London and the surrounding southern Ontario region form a key battleground for Mr. Harper and Mr. Trudeau, who took the helm of the Liberal party at age 41 two years ago. Southern Ontario is home to Canada’s largest city, Toronto, and about one-third of all Canadian voters. Another party, the left-leaning New Democratic Party, is trailing in the three-way race. It will be difficult for either party to win the most seats nationally without capturing a healthy share of the towns and suburbs around Toronto, a region known as “the 905” for its area code, along with the farther-flung cities such as London and Waterloo.

ENLARGE

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau during a campaign rally in Calgary, Alberta, on Sunday. Photo: chris wattie/Reuters

The Liberals have benefited from an unexpectedly strong campaign from Mr. Trudeau, a former teacher who entered federal politics in 2008 before winning the Liberal Party leadership in 2013. Though he is untested on the economic and global policy-making stage, his youth and energy have captured the attention of a swath of voters.

The Liberals have also run on a promise to spend heavily on infrastructure to stimulate the economy, a plan that would include directing funds to speed building of bridges and border gateways to speed deliveries of manufactured and other goods. Mr. Trudeau says he would spend 60 billion Canadian dollars ($46.47 billion) and run deficits for a few years to do that. Mr. Harper has stuck to a balanced-budget promise, and said that there are enough strong areas of the economy outside of the resources sector that stimulus isn’t needed.

Mr. Schildroth will cast his vote in London West, a sprawling residential area of affluent and middle-class voters that is viewed as a national bellwether. London West has picked a candidate from the winning party in 12 of the past 14 elections.

The city’s economic wounds could translate into political pain for Mr. Harper’s Conservatives in the district, where long-standing Conservative incumbent Ed Holder, the Minister of Science, is in a tight race with Liberal Kate Young, a former local television host who is running for the first time.

“People are frustrated. They just don’t think there is a plan. And people aren’t sure where we are going,” said Ms. Young.

In a statement sent via email, Mr. Holder said he had heard from thousands of voters and the reception has been positive toward the Conservative plan for lower taxes for families, seniors and businesses. He said he was “confident” about his re-election chances Monday night.

The Conservatives’ message is resonating in some parts of London West, such as the Warbler Woods development, where well-tended homes on its gently rolling hills have long been a Conservative Party stronghold. On the winding street of Chestnut Hill, which overlooks a protected ravine prized by birders, the royal-blue Conservative election signs vastly outnumber the neighborhood’s smattering of red Liberal offerings.

One white-brick house near the center of the street bears no signs of political allegiance. That is because its owner doesn’t want to announce his political defection to his neighbors. John Grant, a 69-year-old retired human-resources manager, has voted for the Conservative Party in the last three elections.

After months of deliberating, he said he switched sides to cast his ballot for the Liberal candidate last week in early voting.

“It’s been one thing after another with this party,” Mr. Grant said. “It’s time for a change.”

—Kim Mackrael contributed to this article.

Comments are closed.