Donald Trump and Ben Carson Gain Strength in Poll of Republicans Jeb Bush continues to lose ground and Marco Rubio emerges as leading contender from GOP establishment wing By Janet Hook
Mr. Bush, once considered the GOP’s likely nominee, is also lagging behind his onetime protege, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is emerging as a leading contender to rally the party’s establishment wing against the rise of insurgent outsiders such as Messrs. Trump and Carson.
The new poll, conducted Oct. 15-18, underscores the durability—even the gathering strength—of anti-Washington candidates who had long been viewed as likely to be flash-in-the-pan political phenomena.
The poll also tested opinion on another aspect of the Republican Party’s internal struggles, the question of who will succeed Rep. John Boehner (R., Ohio) as House speaker. GOP primary voters in the survey said it was more important to find a successor who would stand up for principles rather than seek compromise, even if that meant less work would get done, by a 56% to 40% split.
ENLARGE Nearly two-thirds of Republicans said they would be “comfortable and positive” if Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) became speaker. Mr. Ryan so far has refused to take the job, but many Republicans see him as one of the few figures who could appeal both to establishment and insurgent wings of the party.
In the presidential competition, candidates with little political experience continue to rule. Mr. Trump, the reality-television celebrity and businessman, was the first choice of GOP primary voters, with 25% support, up from 21% in a late September Journal/NBC News poll.
Mr. Carson, the retired neurosurgeon, placed second in the new survey, with 22% support, a slight rise over last month despite controversy over statements he made that an observant Muslim shouldn’t be U.S. president.
Behind them was Mr. Rubio, who rose to 13% in the poll from 11% last month. He was the only other GOP candidate to draw double-digit support.
ENLARGE Mr. Bush, who led the field as recently as June, when he was first choice of 22% of GOP primary voters, drew 8% in the latest poll. That put him in the same league as Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the antiestablishment conservative who entered the race as a long shot, and Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard executive who gained traction after the first two GOP debates, but hasn’t reached the top tier. Mr. Cruz had 9% support, and Mrs. Fiorina 7%.
Mr. Bush is losing among poll respondents such as Nicholas Montagnoli, a construction worker in California who prefers Messrs. Trump and Carson, and views their lack of political experience as an asset, not a liability.
“The circle [of people] that runs around staying in politics, they become so involved that they are not doing what they came to office to do anymore,” said Mr. Montagnoli, who said he couldn’t support Mr. Bush. “I think fresh people and nonpolitical people would do a lot better.”
The poll also included a broader measure of candidates’ acceptability, which illustrated how much the ground has shifted under Mr. Bush. When asked whether they could imagine themselves supporting a candidate, more GOP primary voters said they couldn’t see themselves supporting Mr. Bush, at 44%, than Mr. Trump, at 36%.
For Mr. Trump, that is a dramatic improvement over March, before he announced his candidacy, when 74% of GOP primary voters said they couldn’t see themselves supporting him.
By that broader measure of acceptability, Messrs. Carson and Rubio lead the pack and show they have the most potential to draw partywide support. Some 74% of Republican primary voters said they could see themselves supporting Mr. Carson; 65% said that about Mr. Rubio.
For some Republicans, the reluctance to vote for Mr. Bush is more strategic than a matter of substance.
Chelsea Budgen, a Carson fan who is an at-home caregiver for her veteran husband in upstate New York, said she could support Mr. Bush. But she said she worried that Mr. Bush’s family legacy, as a son and brother of presidents, would prove to be a liability that would prevent him from winning a general election.
“I have nothing against him or his policies,” she said. “I just know Americans wouldn’t vote in another Bush.”
Full results of the new Journal/NBC News poll, which surveyed 1,000 adults, will be released on Tuesday.
Included in the survey were 400 Republicans who say they plan to vote in the primaries. The margin of error for that group was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Corrections & Amplifications:
Jeb Bush is a former governor of Florida. An earlier version of this article incorrectly identified him as governor.
Comments are closed.
