In 2010, incumbent and write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski defeated the Republican nominee for Senate, Joe Miller, with 40% of the vote (100,000 votes) to Miller’s 35% (90,000 votes) and Democrat Scott McAdams’s 25% (60,000 votes). The poor showing of McAdams was a result of underfunding ($100,000 total) and a realization by Alaskan Democrats, led by Democratic U.S. senator Mark Begich, that the race was really between Miller and Murkowski. For his own purposes, principally his chances of winning re-election in 2014, Begich preferred Murkowski to Miller. He had served with her in the Senate for two years and had developed a mutually beneficial relationship with her. As a liberal Republican, she was close to Begich, a moderate Democrat, ideologically, and they shared many common political interests in Alaska. When he ran for re-election in 2014, Begich touted their close working relationship to such an extent that Murkowski was forced to publicly distance herself from him. In 2010, Murkowski was able to assemble 40% of the electorate because of an ad hoc coalition with the Democratic Party, or at least the Begich wing of that party.
Recreating that coalition is her path to victory again in 2016, but Begich Democrats now prefer Miller. Begich wants to return to the Senate, as evidenced by his flirtation with the idea of running as a write-in this year. Two years ago, as an incumbent, he lost to Dan Sullivan, and if he challenges him in 2020, the situation will be reversed. He will be the challenger, Sullivan, a savvy politician, the incumbent. But if Miller is elected, he’ll be up for re-election in 2022. This is a much more winnable race in Begich’s eyes. He thinks Miller is a wild-eyed extremist who will embarrass himself in office. Begich will run against him, and also arrange for an independent candidacy to draw moderate Republican support away from Miller. In 2022, Begich will be a vigorous 60 years old, with an empty nest and a burning desire to redeem himself and the Begich brand. He wants Miller, not Murkowski, as his opponent.
The Begich wing of the Alaska Democratic Party is supporting the independent candidacy of political newcomer Margaret Stock, an idealistic environmentalist, a woman who believes, with a good showing, that she has a future in Alaska politics. She has reportedly assembled a war chest of $250,000 and has the resources to conduct a serious campaign. She will attend all of the debates, including Kodiak on October 12 and Barrow on October 26. She’s a good government mainstream liberal Democrat and a far superior candidate to the 2010 Democratic nominee, Scott McAdams, who was a sacrificial lamb. She could easily exceed the 25% of the vote gathered by McAdams, except for the wild card in this Senate race, the Democratic nominee, former Republican state legislator Ray Metcalfe.
Metcalfe founded the Republican Moderate Party of Alaska in 1986, and in the 1998 governor’s race he won 13,000 votes, 6% of the total, as its candidate. He’s a reform candidate and has attempted for years to expose the corruption of the Ted Stevens political machine, which included not only Frank and Lisa Murkowski, but Stevens’s son, former State Senate president Ben Stevens. Metcalfe’s Alaska Public Offices Commission complaint against Ben Stevens led to a raid on Stevens’s offices by the FBI and his abandonment of a career in politics. In Metcalfe’s mind, and in truth, Lisa Murkowski is the illegitimate heiress of the corrupt Stevens organization. The political power of Stevens, and now Lisa Murkowski, depended on “Stevens money” – as much as $1 billion and more in federal pork projects each year. That money is no longer available, and thus the glue that held the Stevens machine together no longer exists.