The real collusion story : Richard Baehr
In the six months since last November’s U.S. presidential election, there has been a near avalanche of innuendo-filled stories, based primarily on leaks from ”government or intelligence officials,” suggesting (while providing no actual evidence) there may have been nefarious activity involving Trump campaign officials or supporters and the Russian government and people connected to it, to influence the election. One popular MSNBC cable TV host has given more than half her airtime to weaving tales of how the two sides may have colluded, proving mainly that a loyal left-wing audience can put up with repetition of material utterly absent of substance for a long time, as long as it bashes the right individual and political party. The conspiracy theory is that Donald Trump was bought by the Russians, who got him elected and now he is doing their bidding. The fact that the Trump administration has not behaved toward Russia or its proxies in a fashion consistent with this conspiracy theory has done little to quiet the true believers of the collusion litany. Neither is there any evidence of Russians blocking Clinton voters from showing up in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Florida, or providing troops to keep Hillary Clinton from making campaign appearances in some of these states. In the last few weeks, there has been a counterpunch of sorts from Trump supporters, alleging that former President Barack Obama’s officials in the Justice Department and intelligence services launched a surveillance operation during the campaign to potentially derail the Trump campaign, and after the election, to keep the Russian story alive through leaks to eager journalists, to delegitimize his presidential victory and his ability to govern. At this point, based on what is known as opposed to what is believed or hoped for by partisans, it is highly likely that both themes are probably exaggerated, and maybe even totally false, though the leaks from Obama loyalists still in government seem to provide some support for the charge that there has been an organized campaign to damage his successor. In the meantime, a blockbuster story in Politico provides much new information on how far the Obama team was willing to go to get a nuclear deal with Iran done, and then to please the mullahs in any number of ways after the agreement was reached, to demonstrate U.S. allegiance to their needs and demands. In any case, no journalist sympathetic to the Obama narrative on the Iran deal would dare call it collusion. The Politico article revealed for the first time the extent of the trade the Obama administration was willing to make with Iran to obtain the release of five American prisoners. The U.S. announced the release of seven Iranians, described by the administration as civilians, none involved with terrorism. In fact, several were regarded by Obama’s Justice Department as clear national security threats, involved in weapons procurement. The administration also dropped charges and arrest warrants against 14 other Iranians, all of them fugitives, several of them also involved in weapons procurement for Iran’s nuclear program, . ”Through action in some cases and inaction in others, the White House derailed its own much-touted National Counterproliferation Initiative at a time when it was making unprecedented headway in thwarting Iran’s proliferation networks,” the report said. “In addition, the Politico investigation found that Justice and State department officials denied or delayed requests from prosecutors and agents to lure some key Iranian fugitives to friendly countries so they could be arrested. Similarly, Justice and State, at times in consultation with the White House, slowed down efforts to extradite some suspects already in custody overseas, according to current and former officials and others involved in the counterproliferation effort.” When critics of the Iran deal argued that despite the agreement, Iran was continuing to develop and procure long-range missiles and spread havoc through its expansionist aggression in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen and support of terrorism, Obama officials always chimed in that the deal only dealt with eliminating the nuclear threat, and not any other issues. Of course, the deal eliminated nothing. Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was reduced, but not eliminated (similar to Syria’s supply of poison gases after Obama wimped out on enforcing his own red line), and Iran’s centrifuges, many of them now an enhanced variety, continued to operate. In any case, every time a report surfaced about Iran violating some term of the deal, the president’s team, led by then-Secretary of State John Kerry, was quick to provide a legal brief on their behalf. Last week, an Iranian dissident group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, which initially broke the story of the existence of Iran’s nuclear weapons program in 2002, chargedthat the country was operating a weaponization program for a nuclear bomb at the Parchin facility, which the Obama administration agreed did not need to be inspected by International Atomic Energy Agency personnel. ”Parchin is the location where the IAEA long suspected Iran was conducting test explosions for nuclear detonators. In October 2014, Iran finally admitted to using Parchin to test exploding bridge wires, but implausibly claimed they were not for weapons development,” the report said. “Equally incredibly, the IAEA concluded a secret side deal with Iran that allowed it to collect its own samples at Parchin — in which the IAEA in fact did find evidence of enriched uranium. But despite that and more evidence, the JCPOA [the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, i.e., the nuclear deal] was concluded and sanctions against Parchin Chemical Industries were lifted.” The accusation that Trump colluded with Russia and President Vladimir Putin to help him get elected (via carefully timed WikiLeaks releases) at least provides a tangible reward for the alleged partnership: an election victory. What explains the Obama obsession in pursuit of an agreement with Iran and the lies about what was in the agreement and side deals? The answer appears to fall into one of two categories, or perhaps both, neither of which would be easy to swallow for an Obama partisan. The Obama team made no secret of the fact that the Iran deal was to be its foreign policy and second-term version of President Obama’s health care law, the milestone domestic policy “achievement” of the first term. The history of the creation, passage, and political fallout from Obamacare is an instructive lesson for an analysis of the Iran deal. The bill was to be passed, one way or another, even if only with votes by Democrats. Problems with the new program could be addressed later, finessed by administrative rules if necessary. Once the P5+1 talks on Iran became public and a deal was near, nothing was going to prevent it. The achievement was that a deal was made, and details were less important. The parade of late concessions by the Americans in the negotiations should have been no surprise. Selling the agreement to Democrats in Congress turned into a loyalty issue. In other words, the Iran deal was built to solidify the Obama legacy. As president, Obama made no secret of his high regard for his time in office and achievements. Now he could sell this new achievement. There is, however, one more unsettling possibility. When one studies the Iran deal, and what it achieved for each side, it is obvious that it is one of the most one-sided agreements in American diplomatic history. In exchange for lengthening Iran’s breakout period to a bomb by a few months for a few years, Iran had all its frozen funds released, won an end to most international sanctions, received a flood of foreign business interests ready to trade, obtained a fairly modest inspections regime, and got a pass on every other noxious activity by the regime, from provocations abroad, support for terrorism and missile development to weapons purchases and sales. The administration even argued that this collection of benefits would enable Iran to achieve its rightful place as part of the new balance of power in the Middle East (now that the U.S. was headed out the door). Why would an American president give away so much for so little, unless he believed that the rewards for Iran were needed and deserved? A simpleton might say it looked as if the president was playing for the other team. Either that, or egotistical legacy building. In any case, Mount Rushmore will not be calling anytime soon. |
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