RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-middle-east-conflict-you-havent-heard-about-11581277914?mod=opinion_major_pos6

Iran isn’t the only flashpoint in the Middle East. Less noticed are tensions between Egypt and Turkey over the fate of Libya, where a messy civil war has been raging since 2014. This antagonism could further destabilize the Middle East, which could set off another refugee crisis in Europe. The fight may also disrupt maritime commerce in the Mediterranean and lead to a resurgence of ISIS in Libya.

Two events set off the quarrel. One was Turkey’s decision last month to deploy troops to Libya in support of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and his internationally recognized Government of National Accord, known as the GNA. Then there’s Turkey’s maritime accord with the GNA in November. Egypt has substantial energy interests in the eastern Mediterranean, and the agreement sets out exclusive economic zones for Turkey and Libya that would hamstring further exploration by Egypt in a region rich in natural gas.

There is no shortage of foreign involvement in Libya’s civil war. Egypt—like Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—backs Libyan militia leader Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army under his command. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi has provided logistical support to Mr. Haftar as he fights militias loyal to the GNA. There are reports of more direct support from Egypt, including weapons shipments. Turkey, along with Qatar, backs the GNA, which has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood—an archenemy of Egypt’s secular, military government.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mini-merkels-mega-meltdown-11581380318?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

German politics was thrown into new turmoil Monday when Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union, announced she won’t run for Chancellor next year. The defense minister, known as AKK, was Chancellor Angela Merkel’s preferred successor.

The final straw for Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer and her critics was a conflict with the CDU’s local branch in Thuringia in the former East Germany. State elections there in October were inconclusive, as has become the norm in Germany. The CDU and center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) hemorrhaged votes while the neo-communist Left and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged. After months of negotiations, local CDU leaders agreed to cooperate with the AfD and the free-market Free Democratic Party to form a state government—defying Mrs. Merkel and Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer’s blanket ban on CDU alliances with the AfD.

Yet Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer—called “mini Merkel” for her close relationship with Germany’s long-time leader—never enjoyed full control of the party. Her selection as leader in late 2018 represented an attempt to suppress debate within the party by rejecting the free-market convictions of Friedrich Merz or the more assertive tone on cultural issues from Jens Spahn, both of whom challenged AKK.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-cold-war-over-venezuela-11581379011?mod=opinion_lead_pos9

There weren’t many bipartisan moments in last week’s State of the Union address. Most Democratic legislators sat on their hands as President Trump hailed overall rising wages as well as record low unemployment for African-Americans, Asian-Americans and Hispanics. But in a move that testifies to the humanitarian and geopolitical concerns Venezuela presents, Democrats and Republicans rose together to applaud Juan Guaidó, the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, who is recognized as the country’s legitimate ruler by nearly 60 nations including the U.S.

Days after U.S. legislators applauded Mr. Guaidó, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in Caracas, offering aid and comfort to the beleaguered government of Nicolás Maduro. The message seemed clear: Russia is prepared to stand up to the U.S., even in the Western Hemisphere, to protect its Venezuelan allies.

For the Trump administration’s foreign policy, the tangle with Russia over Venezuela is a local problem with global consequences. When I interviewed him recently, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo identified a short list of administration priorities for 2020. Real progress toward change in Venezuela and an improved relationship with Russia are both high on the list. With both Russiagate and Ukrainegate in the rearview mirror, it would appear that the administration has a new freedom to reach out diplomatically to the Kremlin—but that hardly comports with the rock-star treatment given to Mr. Guaidó in Washington last week.

More than three years into the Trump administration, the U.S.-Russia relationship remains icy. The U.S. has placed sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would connect Germany to Russian natural gas. In northeastern Syria, American and Russian forces have engaged in tense standoffs even as Vladimir Putin doubles down on his support for Bashar Assad. The week before the State of the Union, Mr. Pompeo visited Ukraine, bringing promises of aid and support. This looks and feels more like a Cold War than another “reset” of the U.S.-Russia relationship. What’s going on?