Belarus on the Brink The country’s people are fed up with their dictator, and chaos could follow.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/belarus-on-the-brink-11596756409?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is facing the most serious challenge to his quarter-century rule, but he won’t leave without a fight. Instability in the country of 9.5 million could open another front for Russian aggression along the European Union’s border.
Mr. Lukashenko prevented several rivals from running in this Sunday’s presidential election. But Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of a banned candidate, has presented a surprisingly robust challenge. Tens of thousands have attended rallies to support Ms. Tikhanovskaya, who is running on pro-democratic reforms that would bring Belarus closer to the West. She also promises to resign after six months and order a fresh election.
Like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Mr. Lukashenko rules as an authoritarian but tries to derive legitimacy from unfair elections. Both men have seen their once genuine popularity decline thanks to economic mismanagement, frustration with curtailed political freedom, and especially a bungled response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Like his Russian counterpart, Mr. Lukashenko won’t accept any outcome but victory in rigged elections.
Independent observers have been detained while documenting thousands of election-law violations in early voting. If opposition supporters feel they’ve been robbed, as they almost certainly will, expect protests. Mr. Lukashenko won’t hesitate to violently suppress dissent, but the depth of public disdain means the demonstrators won’t back down easily.
The unfortunate reality is that widespread demonstrations can’t succeed without support from the country’s elites, something Mr. Lukashenko understands. “Don’t you dare betray me,” the insecure leader told his nomenklatura earlier this week. “Betrayal won’t be forgiven even in heaven. If you’re not capable or ready, step aside.” The U.S. and European Union should warn public officials and businesses that they will face travel and financial sanctions over support for a crackdown.
Moscow remains the wild card. As a buffer between the West and Russia, Minsk has played each side against each other to its advantage. The incumbent’s independent streak sometimes annoys Mr. Putin, but Russia prefers him over Ms. Tikhanovskaya. If Mr. Lukashenko loses control, a covert Russian military deployment is possible. The recent arrest of 33 alleged Russian mercenaries in Minsk wasn’t encouraging.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has fought to deepen Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, while French President Emmanuel Macron dreams of turning Mr. Putin into a geopolitical partner. This mix of cynicism and naiveté encourages Russian aggression, whereas a unified U.S.-European threat of greater economic isolation would cause Mr. Putin to think twice about another military intervention.
Washington and Brussels can’t control what happens in Belarus, but statements of “deep concern” aren’t enough. Elites in Minsk and Moscow need to know they will face serious costs for obstructing the democratic will of the Belarussian people.
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