After Trump, a Different GOP Win or lose, the party won’t return to the old orthodoxy. Populist ideas have put down deep roots.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-trump-a-different-gop-11598197856
Mr. Jindal was governor of Louisiana, 2008-16, and a candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
Many Beltway Republicans, not to mention Democrats, are eager to move past the Trump era and return to “regular order.” Democrats are measuring the drapes in the Oval Office, with a confident air reminiscent of Hillary Clinton four years ago. Yet it would be foolish to count President Trump out—or assume that if he loses, he won’t leave a mark on his party. Whether Mr. Trump leaves office next year or in 2025, Republican voters will likely continue their push for populist policies rather than revert to traditional conservative orthodoxy on issues like trade, immigration and foreign policy.
Political figures shouldn’t try to imitate Mr. Trump’s style. He is one of a kind, and his approach is authentic and effective for him. Tweeting like Mr. Trump won’t come off the same way from another politician. Moreover, voters tend to favor candidates whose strengths compensate for the weaknesses of their predecessors. After eight years of the slick Bill Clinton, voters elected the blunt George W. Bush. He in turn gave way to the professorial Barack Obama. Though candidates won’t succeed in trying to be like Mr. Trump, it’s probable many will try and fail.
The president’s core appeal is another matter. The image of an outsider sent to “drain the swamp” will continue to resonate with voters fed up with a permanent ruling political class focused on promoting its own interests. While everyday Republicans are not looking for a mini-Trump, they will back candidates that pledge to continue his fight on behalf of working Americans against elites in both parties. They see a direct correlation between his trade, immigration and corporate policies and their own economic welfare.
The Republican Party once supported the North American Free Trade Agreement, expanded commerce with China, and fast-track authority to facilitate new trade deals. Staunch free traders in New York and Washington used to rule the roost, but they are now outnumbered. The new majority is composed of people who want to crack down on foreign countries taking advantage of U.S. companies, workers and markets. There is especially hostility toward countries whose low wages or communist governments tilt the field to their advantage.
Mr. Trump’s fight with Beijing over trade deficits, intellectual property theft and unequal market access has resonated with voters and pushed politicians of all types to be more hawkish toward Beijing. It’s already drawn Mr. Biden away from his position early in the primaries that China is “not competition” for America. Subsequent Republicans may adopt different tactics—for example, marshaling Germany and others to challenge a rising China—but they won’t revert to the traditional GOP view that trade inevitably promotes prosperity for all and freedom around the world. Lay conservatives don’t see all trade as a zero-sum competition, but they do see their jobs and wage increases threatened by unfair practices.
Republicans who want to moderate the party on immigration are out of touch with voters who want the wall built and the border secured. Voters see illegal immigration, like trade, as threatening their jobs and wages. They demand immigration policies that benefit the U.S. economy—such as tying legal immigration quotas to workforce needs, balancing a skill-based system with the current emphasis on family reunification, and limiting new immigrants who require government assistance. As important as economic considerations, GOP voters are also anxious that assimilation be the norm. They want immigrants to pursue the American Dream by learning English, supporting freedom for others, and getting a job. A significant portion don’t want immigrants to transform American culture.
George H.W. Bush’s proclamation of a “new world order,” in which the U.S. would help enforce the “rule of law” to govern the “conduct of nations,” is no longer relevant. Republican voters side with Mr. Trump’s America First approach to foreign policy. They agree that allies should pay more for their own defense and more U.S. troops should return home from long-term deployments. GOP voters want to invest in defense as a deterrent and deploy the military only when America’s strategic interests are directly at stake. Politicians in both parties have been telling voters for years the U.S. can’t be the world’s policeman and that nation-building impulses should be directed to domestic infrastructure renewal—including highways, railroads and waterways.
Mr. Trump, sounding more like Teddy Roosevelt than Ronald Reagan, has turned away from pure laissez-faire capitalism to take on certain high-profile businesses. He has criticized industries like the automotive sector for failing to invest and hire more domestically, blasted big tech for censoring conservatives, and targeted pharmaceutical firms for high drug prices. Not every Republican will embrace breaking up the technology firms or requiring drug companies to give American patients a break on costs, but the party will also no longer reflexively defend corporations.
Mr. Trump also made the popular promise to not cut Medicare or Social Security, and he has shown less interest than traditional Republicans in restraining the size of government. Yet Mr. Trump has also promoted several traditional Republican policies that will continue to define the party. He has reduced taxes and eased regulations, increased military spending, promoted the domestic energy industry, supported Israel, appointed originalist and textualist judges, and defended religious liberty, gun rights and the unborn.
The president harnessed the populist wave that has transformed Republican politics, but he didn’t create it. Despite what Mr. Trump’s critics might hope, his appeal is deeper than a cult of personality. It is based on policies designed to benefit his working-class base. Republican leaders are fooling themselves if they think these policies are going to disappear from politics when he does.
Mr. Jindal was governor of Louisiana, 2008-16, and a candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
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