RUTHFULLY YOURS

ttps://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2020/11/remdesivir-hydroxychloroquine-and-covid-19/

Has there ever been a worse public policy disaster than the response of almost all governments to COVID-19?

It is now clear that COVID-19, while very infectious, is no more lethal that various influenza epidemics, with an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of around 0.1 per cent. As I pointed out in Quadrant in March (“Logic, the First Casualty”), Stanford Professor of Epidemiology John Ioannidis correctly estimated the IFR for Covid as 0.125 per cent, this being the rate at which those infected perish. He also estimated the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) as about 1 per cent, this being the fatality rate of the cases being treated.

These estimates have proven to be accurate and comparable to those for seasonal influenza—and less than the 2 to 3 per cent CFR of the H1N1 influenza virus that caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic and less than the rate initially estimated by the WHO, which has not accepted the lower figure. While swine flu was not as infectious as Covid, governments did not close down societies and economies and trample civil liberties in response to the swine flu pandemic. Why have they with Covid?

There are several factors that help explain why. Media, both social and conventional, have inflated the perception of risk. Bad news sells, and the madness of crowds can now spread electronically.

The fact that the grim statistics, reported in a daily ritual, have been unreliable has not helped, with increased numbers often simply reflecting increased testing. The reporting of deaths has bordered on negligent, with those positive for Covid being registered as dying from Covid, despite (as the US Centers for Disease Control recently reported) 94 per cent of those dying with Covid having significant comorbidities (an average of 2.6 comorbidities each). Greater funding was made available for a Covid death, so there was an incentive to so record deaths. George Floyd, who died in police custody in Minneapolis, was positive for Covid and would have otherwise been counted as dying from Covid, had other causes not be assigned.

https://www.jns.org/iaea-says-iran-continues-to-violate-2015-nuclear-deal/?utm_sour

Tehran has also been enriching uranium up to a 4.5 percent purity, higher than the 3.67 percent allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Wednesday that Iran is still in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal by continuing to increase its low-enriched uranium stockpile.

As of Nov. 2, Iran had a stockpile of 5,385.7 pounds of low-enriched uranium, up from 4,641.6 pounds reported on Aug. 25, reported AP, which obtained a confidential document distributed to IAEA member countries.

Iran has also been continuing to enrich uranium up to a 4.5 percent purity, higher than the 3.67 percent allowed under the deal, according to the IAEA report.

In March, the IAEA warned that Iran was tripling its production of enriched uranium and dramatically increased the number of machines used to enrich uranium and make more nuclear fuel at a faster pace.

Also in the new IAEA report, according to Reuters, Iran has installed advanced centrifuges in the underground Natanz uranium-enrichment facility. The 2015 deal stated that the centrifuges can only be used for first-generation IR-1 machines.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16751/china-ant-group-financial-system

Beijing has cast doubt on the soundness of China’s equity markets and, more broadly, on the long-term viability of the country’s private sector.

China is not big enough for two big personalities. Xi is building a personality cult, and so is Ma Yun, better known as Jack Ma to the international financial and business communities.

Ant’s lending volumes grew fast because the company was largely unregulated.

“The message is that no big private businessman will be tolerated on the mainland.” — Chen Zhiwu of Hong Kong University, Financial Times, November 6, 2020.

Xi demands absolute obedience, something incompatible with a modern financial system.

Investors in Hong Kong this week dumped more than $250 billion in Chinese tech stocks. Particularly hard hit were Alibaba Group, JD.com, Tencent, and Meituan Dianping.

The rout followed the stunning postponement of what would have been the largest initial public offering in history. Ant Group Co., Ltd., an Alibaba Group affiliate, was set, with the overallotment option, to raise $39.5 billion.

Investors were valuing the six-year-old company at $359 billion, making it worth more than American-based behemoth J.P. Morgan and the world’s largest bank by assets, the state-backed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

On November 3, Shanghai’s Nasdaq-like STAR Market and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced the suspension about 36 hours before the scheduled start of trading in Hong Kong. The unprecedented actions shocked domestic and international investors.