“Family Formations and Declining Fertility Rates”-Sydney Williams
Sixty years ago, the threat of population growth outstripping the ability of the Earth to feed, clothe and house people was real. That is no longer the case. We now face the opposite challenge. The West, including the U.S. and the rest of the developed world, are no longer having enough children to replace themselves. Simultaneously, in the U.S. there has been a sharp rise in out-of-wedlock births and father-less children. In a world consumed with identity politics, legalizing marijuana and climate change the problem of one-parent families has been ignored.
Aging and (ultimately for Europe and the U.S.) declining populations face us. Japan’s population declined by about 400,000 over the past twenty years. Europe’s population increased by sixteen million (727 million to 743 million) between 2000 and 2020, but only because of an estimated 40 million immigrants. The United States population grew by 50 million during the past twenty years, with about half the growth coming from immigrants.
Demographers use TFR (Total Fertility Rate) to determine whether a nation’s native population is increasing or shrinking. It is a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman through her reproductive life. Replacement is 2.1. In 2019, the TFR for Japan was 1.37, for Europe 1.52 and for the U.S. 1.71. The last time a TFR of 2.1 was reached in the U.S. was in 2007. In contrast, in 1960 the TFR was 3.65. Economic growth, over time, relies on population expansion. If it doesn’t come through births, it must come by way of immigration. As the United States grew rapidly in the post-World War II period, TFRs averaged over 3.0. Where population growth exceeds replacement are in undeveloped countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, and in India and Indonesia. Even in those regions, TFRs are declining.
Problems associated from aging and shrinking populations, i.e., a smaller workforce supporting a larger retired population and greater use of healthcare, have been exacerbated by changing cultural mores and an abandonment of traditional Judeo-Christian values, particularly in the U.S. Out-of-wedlock births have increased, while births to married women have declined. And, it has been clearly demonstrated that out-of-wedlock births (70% of all births in a city like Baltimore) lead to drug and alcohol abuse, with criminality, poverty and illiteracy as their progeny. Not assuming responsibility for one’s actions leads to increased dependency on the state, and increased dependency leads to a loss of the dignity associated with work. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the percent of children living in two-parent households declined from 88% in 1960 to 69% in 2016, while the percent of children living with a single mother rose from 8% in 1960 to 23% in 2016. A survey by the Pew Research Center reports that the U.S. “has the world’s highest rate of children living in single-parent households.”
With so many in Washington, in schools and universities and in “woke” corporations focused on political correctness, equity, climate, censorship, cancellation of history, and oppressors oppressing the oppressed, the importance of family has vacated our conscience. Public schools have become incubators of social engineering. Teachers and, especially administrators are more interested in ensuring that transgenders have access to the bathroom of their choice and that Critical Race Theory becomes part of the curriculum, than in teaching the rudiments of math and English. It explains why the United States, despite being one of the freest and wealthiest countries in the world, ranks 25th in the PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) ratings for reading, math and science, behind countries such as Estonia, South Korea, Canada and Finland. Sadly, it has been poor and minority families who have been the major victims of misguided public policies.
While “the future is not ours to see,” as the song goes, it is hard to believe that declining birthrates in the developed world bode well. The Enlightenment, which was birthed in Christian Europe, gave rise to democracy and capitalism, which in turn enriched lives in Europe, the United States and other parts of the free and developed world. It is not coincidental that the countries with the highest living standards and the freest citizens are ones that embrace democracy and free-market capitalism. In 1960, those countries comprised roughly 22% of the world’s population; today they make up about 12%. Given current trends, the percentage will continue to shrink, with unknown consequences.
Children are a blessing. They are our future. Without them our species dies out. But children come with parental responsibility, the first of which is to provide unconditional love – to give them the security that love provides. It is the responsibility of parents to teach their children that success is merit-based and stems from their own efforts, not from the beneficence of government. They should be taught that “talent, character and competence,” as Joel Peterson, Robert L. Joss Professor of Management at Stamford University, recently wrote, “are evenly distributed across every demographic.” To argue otherwise is to practice racial, religious or gender discrimination. They should learn tolerance and respect for others, and to be colorblind as regards their judgements about race, religion and gender. Children should be encouraged to achieve, to the best of their abilities, excellence in all endeavors, including schooling, athletics and work. They should learn about the country in which they are fortunate to live and how it compares to others – and that the principal function of our government is to preserve the inalienable rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, gifted to us by our Creator. They should understand that government offers a safety net, but at a cost of personal independence. And if they achieve success, our children should be encouraged to give back to their communities. These are attitudes and lessons best provided by parents, with the assistance of churches and schools. These are not lessons that should be left to the state.
This is not a call for parents to recreate the Gilbreth dozen or even to emulate my parents, with their nine children, but it is a call for moral clarity, to encourage and support a culture that fosters decency, mutual respect and personal responsibility, a culture that views the future with optimism, and one that believes in the sanctity of family, marriage and two-parent households.
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