The North Korea Nuclear Temptation Carrots and sticks have both failed to stop Pyongyang’s advances.
A pattern has emerged in President Biden’s dealings with weaker adversaries: He opens with tough talk but fails to follow through. This has been most conspicuous with Iran, Russia and the Taliban, but North Korea could be next.
Pyongyang fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan Wednesday, its second major set of tests in a week and third this year. The country launched new long-range cruise missiles over the weekend and short-range ballistic missiles in March. More provocations will follow as Kim Jong Un tests President Biden’s resolve.
South Korea tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile Wednesday. And last month the U.S. and South Korea held joint military drills despite a North Korean official calling them an “act of self-destruction for which a dear price should be paid as they threaten the safety of our people and further imperil the situation on the Korean peninsula.” The State Department also approved a $258 million sale of precision-guided weapons to the South in August.
Expect more histrionics as Pyongyang continues to use military provocations to coax the U.S. into new negotiations. The North’s patron, China, is already calling for resuming talks with the North, as Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said on a visit to Seoul this week.
North Korea has pursued a predictable negotiating strategy for decades. First, misbehave and issue exaggerated threats. Second, tone down the rhetoric and agree to talks. Finally, pocket concessions before returning to the status quo ante. This happened under Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Barack Obama simply rebranded “do nothing” as “strategic patience.” Mr. Trump’s “grand bargain” summits were a diplomatic embarrassment but didn’t provide many concrete benefits to Pyongyang.
Today the North Korean government—which may have a stockpile of dozens of nuclear weapons—is struggling to feed its people. Fearful of Covid-19, the Hermit Kingdom shut down its borders with Russia and patron state China last year. North Korea’s foreign trade in goods, excluding with South Korea, fell more than 70% in 2020, according to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency. Mr. Kim warned this year of another “arduous march,” a reference to the devastating 1990s famine.
Mr. Biden has said that he would embrace “diplomacy as well as stern deterrence.” The White House has framed the approach as somewhere between Mr. Trump’s overly ambitious dealing and Mr. Obama’s inaction, but its North Korea policy review was short on details. Mr. Biden’s courtship of Iran suggests this preliminary spin won’t necessarily become policy.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in will push for “humanitarian relief” on his way out of office regardless of what Mr. Kim does. Any assistance will benefit Pyongyang elites while shoring up the Kim dynasty and shouldn’t come without concrete and verifiable concessions from the North.
Abandoning denuclearization as a goal in exchange for modest monitoring and limits on the North Korean program would be an invitation for the North to cheat, as it always has in the past. The U.S. should be open to accommodation if the Kim family ever decides to give up its weapons. But, until it does, maintaining sanctions and military deterrence is better than paying extortion.
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