RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://amgreatness.com/2022/02/23/putins-predictabilities/

For all his caginess, dissimulation, and opportunism, Vladimir Putin is more or less predictable.

Putin’s aims? The Russian president’s two-decade dilemma has been how to reclaim the prestige and power of the former Soviet Union—but with only 75 percent of his country’s former territory and 140 million fewer people.

When does he strike? 

First, Putin moves on neighboring former Soviet republics when the world price of oil is high, and his coffers are full. So he went into Georgia in 2008 and into Eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014 when he thought he had the financial wherewithal and public support to do so.  

But when the world is awash in oil, prices dip, and the United States reigns as the largest gas and oil producer, he hesitates. So he remained static between 2017 and 2020. 

Second, when the United States increases the defense budget and deters its enemies, Putin also pauses. In contrast, when America “resets” or appeases, he is emboldened.  

In 2008, the United States was battered by sky-high oil prices and bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Then between2009 and 2016, President Obama went on an apology tour, cut defense spending, boasted of a new “Russian reset,” contextualized Iranian and North Korean aggression, and begged Putin to behave until Obama was reelected in 2012—in exchange for dismantling U.S. missile defense programs in Eastern Europe. Obama then invited Russia into the Middle East after a 40-year absence. 

As a result, during all those years Putin formally invaded Georgia, Eastern Ukraine, and Crimea. But between 2017 and 2020, Putin was quieter.  

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/02/kremlin-invades-ukraine-joseph-klein/

It’s official. The oft-repeated warning from the Biden administration that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent has come to pass.

On February 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent so-called “peace-keeping” forces across Russia’s border with Ukraine into two eastern Ukrainian provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, in the Donbass region. These provinces have been controlled by Russian-leaning Ukrainian separatists who have served as Russia’s proxies since 2014. However, to the rest of the world they are still considered within Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.

Putin’s initial move in invading Ukraine followed his unilateral recognition of the ““independence” of areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres denounced this decree as “a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and inconsistent with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”

But Putin could not care less what the UN Secretary General or the international community as a whole thinks. In his blistering speech on February 21st, the Russian president claimed that all of Ukraine belongs to Russia and should never have been created as a separate country in the first place.

Early in the morning of February 24th (Ukrainian time), Putin broadened the theater of war in Ukraine. He declared a “special military operation” in the country on the pretext of helping the people of Donbass. It was the equivalent of a declaration of war on all of Ukraine, punctuated by explosions that were heard in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, in the aftermath of Putin’s “special military operation” order. Missile attacks and ground troop assaults are undoubtedly on the way.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ukraine-was-betrayed-in-budapest-russia-vladimir-putin-us-uk-volodymyr-zelensky-nuclear-weapons-11645657263?mod=opinion_lead_pos2

As the people of Ukraine steel themselves for a Russian attack, it’s worth recalling how the U.S. persuaded the country to give up its nuclear weapons. The event was the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which the U.S., Great Britain and Russia offered security assurances to the nation that had won independence when the Soviet Union dissolved.

That was the halcyon post-Cold War era when history had supposedly ended. Some 1,800 nuclear weapons were on Ukrainian territory, including short-range tactical weapons and air-launched cruise missiles. The U.S. wanted fewer countries to have fewer nukes, and U.S. credibility was at its peak.

The memo begins with the U.S., U.K. and Russia noting that Ukraine had committed “to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time.” Then the three countries “confirm” a half-dozen commitments to Ukraine.

The most important was to “reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.” They also pledged to “refrain from economic coercion” against Ukraine and to “seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine” in the event of an “act of aggression” against the country. Ukraine had returned all of the nuclear weapons to Russia by 1996.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/russia-unleashes-its-war/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=corner&utm_term=first

As I write this, Vladimir Putin has just finished a speech on Russian TV declaring a “special military action aimed at the demilitarization and de-nazification of Ukraine.”

This has followed — just in the last few hours — Ukrainian president Zalensky giving an impassioned early morning speech to the Russian people begging for peace. We have seen a state of emergency declared across Ukraine. We have seen Ukrainian air space closed and emptied of all civilian aircraft. We have seen intensified shelling along the line of contact in Ukraine’s east. And, in a statement that would have made sense to our great-grandfathers, the Ukrainians have asked Turkey to consider closing the Dardanelles to Russian shipping.

There are also unconfirmed rumors of Russian encroachments on Ukrainian border outposts in the Crimea and in the northeast. Journalists in Kyiv — on CNN’s live feed — report the sound of explosions in the distance. Live cams in the city of Kharkiv show fireballs on the dark horizon.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/putin-announces-military-operation-in-ukraine-explosions-reported-in-kyiv/

Russian president Vladimir Putin announced early Thursday morning local time that his government has resolved “to launch a special military operation” aimed at the “demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine,” heralding the start of a land war on the European continent.

Threatening those who might oppose his efforts to either outright annex parts of Ukraine, or install Ukrainian leaders with pro-Russian bents, Putin warned that “those who would be tempted to intervene . . . will have consequences that you never have had before in your history.” Putin’s reference to denazification would seem to echo his address two days earlier, in which he officially recognized portions of Ukraine as “independent republics,” purportedly in response to what he baselessly characterized as an active genocide taking place against Russian-speaking people in those regions. The governments of Ukraine and the United States, among others, have vigorously disputed these allegations.

Putin’s address has been followed by reports of explosions across Ukraine, including in its capital city of Kyiv. After Putin’s speech, the Ukrainian interior minister, Anton Gerashchenko, confirmed to CNN that “the invasion has begun.” Per NBC’s Susan Kroll, Gerashchenko has also confirmed that Russian troops have landed in the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, the third-largest urban center in the country. Ukrainian military sources have disputed a Russian presence in Odessa, according to Reuters, however, providing an early example of the fog of war that is likely to cloud the conflict.

What is clear, however, is that Russian operations have not been limited to military targets. As the sun began to rise on Thursday morning, air raid sirens began to sound in Kyiv. The capital city’s mayor, Vitaly Klichko, issued the following statement responding to the evolving situation: “In Kyiv we can hear noise of shelling. The worst enemy now is panic. Keep calm. Everyone not involved in critical city functions, stay home. We have to prevail.”