https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/russia-is-screwed/#slide-1
Even aside from the war in Ukraine, a demographic crisis and climate change threaten Russia’s future.
I n the short to medium term, Russia is fairly screwed. But in the long term, Russia is really screwed.
We all know that the Russian economy is in dire straits as it faces unprecedented sanctions from the West, and that countries pulling out of the Russian market now are unlikely to return for a long, long time. The ruble is now almost worthless outside the country, interest rates jumped to 20 percent, and inflation in Russia could rise to a jaw-dropping 20 to 30 percent. Even the longer-term outlook for Russian oil production is darkening.
The Russian military is performing badly, has lost its fearsome reputation, and will need a major expenditure to replace all its lost tanks and transport trucks in addition to its expended precision-guided missiles, artillery, and other weapons.
But the Russian invasion is exposing other weaknesses that Moscow would rather the world didn’t notice.
Douglas London, a former CIA operations officer, writes in the Wall Street Journal that the outlook for recruiting Russians spies has rarely looked better: “Some of the CIA’s best agents have been volunteers who finally are pushed over the edge by a life-altering event and offer their services to an intelligence service. Tolkachev, Polyakov and Kuklinski were volunteers. Thanks to Mr. Putin’s deplorable behavior, I expect an increase in Russian volunteers who have toyed with the idea of doing something to better Russia’s future and might now be receptive to an encouraging nudge.” The FBI is sending Russian-language recruitment ads to cellphones in and around the Russian embassy that read: “If you have information that could help the FBI, please contact us.”
But it is in the long term — say, a generation from now — that Russia is screwed . . . really, really screwed.