Biden Follows Jimmy Carter’s Failed Middle East Model U.S. interests and regional stability suffer when the president harangues Israel rather than work with it. Mike Watson
Little in the Middle East is going America’s way. Iran’s uranium enrichment is approaching weapons grade, Beijing is brokering deals between Tehran and Riyadh, and the Arab League has welcomed Syria’s brutal Bashar al-Assad back into the fold. At a time like this, one would think the U.S. would be working hand in glove with one of its last steady allies in the region: Israel. A recent trip to the Jewish state revealed this isn’t the case.
There’s no shortage of issues primed for cooperation. Jerusalem is concerned about Iran’s nuclear enrichment and well-equipped proxy armies. Those items should also worry Washington, and working on them together could lead to deeper engagement on such issues as the burgeoning Russia-Iran arms trade and China’s regional influence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly hopes that China’s Middle East maneuvers will force President Biden to tend to the region better.
Yet rather than focus on American interests in the region, the Biden administration has poured its energy into meddling in Israel’s judicial reform and demanding more engagement with the Palestinians. The closest the administration has come to advancing urgent U.S. interests is prodding Israel to export weapons to Ukraine and occasionally raising concerns about Chinese investments in sensitive areas.
The president’s pursuit of backward priorities is fundamentally contradicting his regional goals. Much like President Obama, Mr. Biden seems intent on pacifying Iran. Even after two years of failed talks, he seems to think that an agreement pausing Tehran’s nuclear program will eventually lead to a diplomatic breakthrough that will resolve America’s and its allies’ concerns—or, failing that, give the U.S. enough time to make a graceful exit from the Middle East. Unfortunately for Mr. Biden, the mullahs haven’t rushed to return to the nuclear deal Mr. Obama crafted and Donald Trump exited. The administration is now reportedly working on a more limited “understanding” with Iran.
This leaves Israel with less incentive to follow American priorities, particularly on Ukraine. As things stand, Israel isn’t likely to risk antagonizing the Kremlin by arming Ukraine because Moscow’s bases in Syria grant it an effective veto over Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian assets and proxies in Syria. Russia’s tacit assent will become even more important if Mr. Biden’s “understanding” gives Iran more resources to threaten the Jewish state.
The president’s desire to draw down the U.S. military presence across the Middle East also weakens his hand. As Washington’s ability to exert force in the region declines, so will its influence, particularly over the domestic arrangements of other countries. If China’s presence grows and America’s wanes, Israel will have to respond accordingly. Jerusalem may not court Beijing as assiduously as some of the Gulf states have, but it will become less responsive to Washington’s concerns.
To a certain extent, a mismatch of national priorities is unavoidable in any alliance. By virtue of geography, Iranian aggression is a much more pressing worry for Israel than the U.S. But, as in most relationships, what you get from an alliance depends on what you give. Reducing military presence in the Middle East and maintaining a friendly demeanor toward Tehran both have consequences.
The problem comes when a leader isn’t prepared to stomach them. For Richard Nixon, who wanted America’s allies to handle non-Soviet security challenges without U.S. assistance, losing influence on human rights was an acceptable price for trimming America’s global commitments. Jimmy Carter found this bargain revolting and U.S. military deployments unpalatable, so he harangued America’s friends and foes on human rights and other issues to little effect.
Mr. Biden is in danger of repeating the mistakes of the Carter years, and the Palestinians would be the biggest losers. Having grown disenchanted with Henry Kissinger’s security-focused, incremental approach to Arab-Israeli negotiations, Mr. Carter decided to try for a comprehensive peace with all of Israel’s neighbors. Rather than slog toward a settlement with the Palestinians, Soviets, and Syrians, leaders in Egypt and Israel sidestepped the White House peace effort and instead pursued a bilateral agreement. Egypt got the Sinai, Israel got peace, Mr. Carter got a photo-op for hosting the final round of talks, and the Palestinians got nothing.
Today’s regional dynamics are just as unpromising for the Palestinians, and Mr. Biden’s actions are making things worse for them. The Palestinians have exasperated their fellow Arabs and have few willing international partners; this leaves scant prospects for serious diplomatic intervention. With a final-status solution between Israel and Palestine out of view, the best chance to help Palestinians is to stabilize the Middle East so countries can devote more time to lower-priority issues. Mr. Biden’s Iran policy, however, is making the region more unsettled.
Human-rights advocates often denounce balance-of-power thinking as bloodless and amoral, but their causes fare better when America’s geopolitical situation is stronger. If Mr. Biden is determined to reach an “understanding” with Iran, he should stop delivering sanctimonious lectures to the Israelis.
Mr. Watson is associate director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for the Future of Liberal Society.
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