RUTHFULLY YOURS

There has been a huge change in the race for president, and it has more to do with elite opinions about the outcome of the race than it does with the actual numbers.

While there has been a marginal improvement in Donald Trump’s position vis-à-vis Joe Biden, largely due to Biden’s low ratings both for job performance and for his handling of the economy, Biden is also plagued by an increasing number of Democrats who are lukewarm to his position atop the party’s ticket.

Indeed, due to Biden’s age and an increasing perception of corruption involving his son Hunter Biden — who we learned this week is likely to be indicted on gun charges before the end of the month — Biden’s vulnerabilities as a candidate are rapidly piling up.

The reason this is important, is that with a spate of polls, including recent national polling by my firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, showing that Trump’s ratings as president (52% approve, 44% disapprove) are close to 10-points higher than Biden’s contemporaneous ratings (44% approve, 54% disapprove), political analysts are starting to realize that what happened in 2016 could well repeat itself in 2020: That is, an upset victory for Donald Trump.

To be sure, for the last six to nine months — both before and after the former president’s four indictments — the narrative among elites had been pretty much as follows: Trump is damaged goods due to his indictments; he can’t focus on a campaign; swing voters, suburbanites, and women will not vote for Trump; his focus on 2020 will just detract from hopes for a better future, and the GOP must do everything they can to find a stronger nominee.

Meanwhile, the data continues to show Trump with roughly a 40-point lead over his closest primary opponent, a 1-point lead over Biden in SCR’s recent polling, as well as a considerable advantage over Biden in the aforementioned retrospective versus current approval rating of the two administrations.

Put another way, despite people’s doubts about Donald Trump personally — and the doubts are substantial — they believe that he was a better president, on balance, than Joe Biden has been. Plainly speaking, the emphasis that the Biden administration has put on selling “Bidenomics” has fallen flat, and the administration’s ratings on economic management remain stuck below 40% and have even shown slight erosion in some national polls.

The reason this sea change among elite opinion is so important is the donor class obsessively reads the latest available polling data and related commentary. As more and more people recognize that the likelihood of a Trump nomination and potentially even presidency is a very real possibility, it will become tougher to raise and deploy funds needed to challenge Trump in the two states in which he is vulnerable: Iowa and New Hampshire.

This is not to say that Trump has the nomination locked up — he does not — but when I look at the polling in detail, I just don’t see a clear path for any of the other Republican candidates to upset him. This is an unprecedented situation in American politics. It is likely that we will go into the presidential race with two candidates with favorability ratings below 40% and deep-seated skepticism about the nation’s future and its leadership.

I’ve written previously that there is an opening for a “No Labels” candidate, but I am of the opinion that given the feelings of the electorate, such a person would need to be a fresh face such as Ross Perot was in 1992, when he got almost 20% of the popular vote.

The 1992 election may be ancient history, but what is not ancient history is the extraordinary dissatisfaction and cynicism the electorate holds today. And indeed, on the Democratic side, there will continue to be a renewed push to keep Biden in the race, because while her numbers have improved slightly, Vice President Kamala Harris remains deeply unpopular. Despite her statement earlier this week that she would be ready to take over the presidency if necessary, the American people disagree.

Ultimately, should Biden decide for whatever reason not to be a candidate for any reason, it would strengthen, not weaken, the Trump candidacy and increase the likelihood of his return to the Oval Office.

Douglas E. Schoen is a lawyer, political analyst and consultant. He advised President Bill Clinton during his 1996 reelection campaign and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg during his 2020 presidential campaign, among other public figures. He is the author of numerous books, including “Power: The 50 Truths” (2023).