RUTHFULLY YOURS

The existential threat to the Democratic establishment as the 2020 presidential primaries unfolded was Vermont’s socialist senator, Bernie Sanders. Coming off a big win in the Nevada caucuses, Sen. Sanders headed to South Carolina with a leading delegate count of 45—and momentum. The Democrats’ No. 2 vote-getter then wasn’t Joe Biden. It was, incredible to recall, Pete Buttigieg, holding 26 delegates after the voting in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Mr. Biden was third, with 15 delegates after a poor showing in Nevada. Trailing was Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a progressive who lacked Bernie’s mysterious charisma.

The Clyburn endorsement, which sent a signal to the state’s black voters, boosted Mr. Biden to a 48.6% win in South Carolina. Bernie was second with 19.8%. Abetted by the moderate voters who were Rep. Clyburn’s target audience, Mr. Biden eked out a win in November. Nearly four years later, the party establishment that sent Mr. Biden toward the presidency is talking about sending him packing. A CNN poll says Nikki Haley would beat Mr. Biden today by 6 points, and the incumbent president is tied statistically with all the other non-Trump GOP candidates.

Let’s understand what happened back in South Carolina. One of literature’s great allegories is the story of Dr. Faustus, who in return for receiving great powers from the devil, agreed to let Mephistopheles come for his soul sometime in the future. By throwing the party behind Mr. Biden, Rep. Clyburn and the Democrats made a conscious Faustian bargain.

The conceit now, or euphemism, in every conversation or poll is that Mr. Biden is “too old.” As in the 25th Amendment’s capacity concerns. But the Biden inner circle knew in February 2020 that the former vice president was already on the brink of being “too old.” Thus the Delaware-basement campaign. But by committing to Mr. Biden, the Democrats got possession of the powers of the presidency for four years. They also got a passive president who held open the door for the largest outpouring of spending and regulation in generations.

Now that fellow on the other side of Faustian bargains has shown up to tell the Democrats their payment is due. After giving them four years of extraordinary power, he’s taking back Joe Biden. What lies ahead for the Biden-less party could be a hard slog.

Democrats, especially in the White House, are frustrated they’re getting no credit for the economy’s positive indicators—strong job growth, low unemployment and until recently a strong stock market. More intriguingly, the U.S. public seems unimpressed with, almost ungrateful for, the trillions the Democrats spent on Covid-era transfer payments and subsidies.

That’s a testament to the destructive political effects of high inflation—the long-forgotten lesson of the Carter presidency. The bigger problem is that the White House is touting something called Bidenomics at the moment the U.S. public has simply grown tired of Mr. Biden. His public appearances are unwatchable. Most Americans are turning the page.

But what comes next?

The Republicans are a subject for another day. Suffice to say that the Fox poll showing Donald Trump increasing his Republican primary vote share to a whopping 60% shows, if nothing else absent a real vote, that Faustian bargains are a bipartisan temptation.

It was inevitable that as soon as the post-Biden conversation began, attention would turn to Kamala Harris. Ms. Harris hasn’t done much on her own, but the issue of her future is already producing classics of the no-comment genre. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a pro if there ever was one, said when asked if Ms. Harris was Mr. Biden’s best running mate: “He thinks so, and that’s what matters.”

The Democrats’ dilemma over what to do about Ms. Harris is that Mr. Biden guaranteed in a primary debate that his running mate would be a woman. Then after the George Floyd killing, the party’s politics ensured the veep pick would be a black woman. Now Democrats are discovering what a fraught, tangled issue identity politics has become. Once you enter that maze, there’s no way out.

Now comes the United Auto Workers strike, which has brought the party back to a reality suppressed by the Clyburn endorsement in 2020. I don’t think Sen. Sanders ever said, “I’ll be back.” But suddenly there he was, on stage with an important progressive admirer, UAW President Shawn Fain.

The Biden star is fading amid party angst, economic anxiety, the tom-toms of impeachment and a special counsel for Hunter. Once the post-Biden bidding begins, don’t expect Sens. Sanders and Warren to sign on for another fake moderate. This time, the Democrats’ bargain will be made with them.

Write henninger@wsj.com.