Support For Both Biden And Trump Fell In Oct. — A Blip, Or Opening For Challengers? I&I/TIPP Poll Terry Jones
The 2024 election has seemed to be a preordained outcome, with current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump holding substantial leads in their respective parties. But in October’s I&I/TIPP Poll, both major candidates’ support slipped a bit against their challengers. A one-off fluke, or the start of a trend?
The most recent online I&I/TIPP Poll, taken Sept. 27-29 from 1,262 registered voters, saw slippage for both candidates, though neither will yet be pushing the panic button. The overall poll has a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points.
After several months of steady support among Democrats for the party’s presidential nomination, Biden saw his support fall to 34% in October after edging higher from 36% in July and 37% in August to 38% in September.
Since the margin of error for the 560 Democrats surveyed for the poll was +/-4.2 percentage points, Biden’s October support remains within the margin of error when compared to the previous month’s 34% reading.
That said, Biden’s support fell in October. Meanwhile, backing for several of his possible opponents (or, perhaps, replacements if Biden bows out), gained a bit during the month. Biden’s No. 2 rival, former First Lady Michelle Obama, got 11% of Democrats’ support, up from 9% in September, and support for current Vice President Kamala Harris, rose to 8% from 7%. Socialist gadfly and sometime-Democrat candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders took 7% of support in October, also up a percent from September.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has made news recently by vetoing several laws from the state’s far-left Legislature, saw his support rise from 4% in September to 5% in October.
But perhaps of greater concern to Biden’s political advisers is that he runs very weak among some large constituencies: Women (31% support) vs. men (36%), blacks and Hispanics (29% support) vs. whites (38%), and independents (29%) vs. registered Democrats (36%).
Significantly, no single major demographic or political group gives Biden more than 50% support. He could be in a precarious position, especially from an aggressive intra-party challenger among the Democrats, or from a third-party challenge that siphons votes from Biden.
In a three-way race, Biden reduced his lead over Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. from 58 points (68% to 10%) in September to 51 points (65% to 14%) in the current poll.
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