https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-needs-a-defense-buildup-and-fiscal-redirection-debt-military-house-speaker-47d6207c?mod=opinion_featst_pos3
America’s fiscal habits will be changing. In two of the three theaters of World War II, war has reappeared, in Europe and the Middle East. If Russia and Iran have not yet coalesced into a full military partnership, give them time.
In the Pacific, China threatens Taiwan with a large military buildup and near-daily provocations. To the extent China is supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine with more than words, the two are already cooperating more closely than Germany and Japan did in World War II.
In its economy of effort, this column has mostly sat out the inflation discussion, except to emphasize how the current puzzle differs from the 1970s. Then it was poorly conceived regulatory and tax systems, which Carter-Reagan reforms addressed with more suavity than was apparent at the time. Today’s vulnerability is different: the government’s gross overreliance on debt financing to give voters stuff without taxes to pay for it. Distorted, in ways many of us don’t recognize anymore, is our every choice of whether to work, how much to save, how much of our incomes to allocate to healthcare or homeownership or a college degree of questionable value in the marketplace.
All this will be changing in ways that will likely sneak up on us. When Jimmy Carter was president during the last big inflation, government debt was 34% of GDP. Now it’s 122% not counting $78 trillion in unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations. In two years, the average interest rate on the U.S. debt has almost doubled, to 2.97%. Interest payments have more than doubled, to $985 billion, exceeding the defense budget.
This is just the beginning, short of a growth miracle. The truncated duration of our outstanding debt plus 10-year rates over 4.5% mean interest expense will soon outstrip $1.4 trillion in annual Social Security spending. So large is the wave of expected borrowing that Wall Street this week is signaling doubts about the global public’s willingness to fund it.
On top of this comes a need for a big investment in American rearmament.
Now you know why, between his drunken threats of nuclear war, Putin understudy Dmitry Medvedev sprinkles his social-media posts with sardonic comments about Western fiscal management. Phillips O’Brien, the military historian and Ukraine war student from the University of St. Andrews, puts it aptly in his Substack: “The return of conventional war is perhaps the single most important strategic development of this era, and it’s one that we must try to understand, prepare for (and ultimately try and prevent).”