Stunning NBC Poll: Biden Presidency ‘in Peril, Declined on Every Measure’
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/joe-biden-nbc-2024/2024/02/04/id/1152209/
President Joe Biden hit yet another new low in his approval rating (37%) in the latest NBC News poll released Sunday, raising concern of the Democrat pollster, who said the “damning” results show “a presidency in peril.”
Former President Donald Trump not only leads Biden by 5 points (47%-42%) in the national poll, but also leads by big margins:
- 23 points on mental and physical health to be president (46%-23%)
- 22 points on handling the economy (55%-33%)
- 21 points on dealing with crime and violence (50%-29%)
- 16 points on being competent and effective (48%-32%)
- 11 points on improving America’s standing in the world (47%-36%)
- 35 points on securing the southern border (57%-22%)
Illegal immigration has been widely deemed the No. 1 voting issue, according to exit polls in the early GOP primary states.
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates told NBC News.
“On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
The numbers look great now for Trump and “difficult” for the incumbent going into the heart of the 2024 primary cycle, according to Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
“It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a reelection,” McInturff told NBC News.
With 73% of registered voters say the U.S. is on the wrong track under Biden, the only silver lining for the sitting president and Horwitt is there remains time to turn the numbers back around.
“Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024,” Horwitt added. “At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change.”
Biden backers might have to hope for a conviction of Trump on one of the four indictments he faces. If Trump is convicted of a felony, Biden actually leads Trump by 2 points (45%-43%), but that is a statistical tie within the margin of error.
But on actual policy and presidential action, Biden has his work cut out for his administration in the nine months before the November election as Trump’s surge represents huge swings from 2020 polling.
Most notably, Biden’s campaign made its case in 2020 on being more competent and effective, but that advantage is now squarely in Trump’s favor by 16 points, according to the poll. It is a 25-point swing from June 2020 — the height of the George Floyd riots and COVID-19 pandemic backlash.
Biden’s all-time low, 37% approval rating in this poll, is largely weighed down by just 29% approving of his handling of Israel’s war on Hamas.
But the momentum in all areas, as the pollsters noted, remains steadily rising for Trump:
- Border: Trump raised lead from 16 points in September 2020 to 35 points in January 2024.
- Economy: Trump raised his 7-point lead in October 2020 to 22 points today.
- Crime and violence: Trump turned a 4-point deficit during the 2020 riots to a 21-point lead today, a swing of 25 points.
- Competent and effective: Trump flipped a 9-point deficit in June 2020 to a 16-point lead today, another 25-point swing.
- Mental and physical health to be president: Trump turned a 1-point deficit in October 2020 — when he was hospitalized with COVID-19 — into a 23-point lead today.
While Biden was able to take the White House from Trump in 2020 because of a race and COVID-19 backlash, Americans have soured on the results of the Biden administration. Trump now leads all polled factions in total positive views at 38%:
- Up 2 points on Biden (36%)
- Up 10 points on the Supreme Court (28%)
- Up 10 on Vice President Kamala Harris (28%)
- Up 11 on former Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (27%)
- Up 15 on GOP presidential rival Nikki Haley (23%)
- Up 27 on Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who might be weighing a third-party presidential campaign
- Up 28 on People’s Party presidential candidate Cornel West
When the poll expanded the field from a one-on-one hypothetical race between Trump and Biden, Trump (45%) expanded his lead to 6 points over Biden (39%) and the field.
The GOP primary race is all Trump, who pulled 79% support and leads Haley by 60 points among Republican primary voters.
Behind Biden’s new low in approval rating of 37%, down 3 points from the previous NBC News poll low of 40% in November, according to the report:
- Just 35% of Latinos approve.
- Just 29% of young voters approve overall (just 15% on Israel’s war on Hamas; 70% disapprove).
- Just 27% of independent voters approve.
“A major through line in what ails Biden most are his travails with younger voters,” Horwitt said.
Those above demographics are key for Trump, who has made progress among the Black vote but still widely trails there. Trump leads among Latinos (42%-41%) and is tied among voters under 35 (at 42%).
The Hart Associates and Public Opinion Strategies conducted the NBC News poll Jan. 26-30 among 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
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