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Last October 8, one day after the October 7 massacre in southern Israel, Hizballah began firing projectiles into northern Israel. That situation—along with the possibility of a ground invasion by Hizballah’s Radwan force—necessitated an evacuation of about 60,000 Israelis from a 5-kilometer strip along the border to temporary lodging farther south in Israel, where they remain to this day.
Since that time the Israel–Hizballah exchange of hostilities across the border stayed on a relatively low flame and was perceived as a sideshow to the bigger conflict in Gaza. In recent weeks, though, Hizballah has sharply escalated its attacks. They include an increased use of explosive-laden drones, the first use of the heavy Falaq-2 rocket and of antiaircraft missiles, as well as strikes deeper into Israeli territory than before, reaching as far south as Nazareth and a suburb of Haifa.
In terms of casualties on both sides, Israel has had the upper hand—by far—throughout the conflict. On the Israeli side, 10 civilians and 15 soldiers have been killed; on the Hizballah side, the deaths number about 340 of its own fighters, about 60 members of other terror groups, and dozens of civilians. But instead of being deterred, Hizballah has lately been escalating. One question is where it leads; many think it’s leading inevitably to a much bigger war—and, possibly, very soon. The other question is why Hizballah is ramping up the hostilities to a level not seen since October; following are possible answers.
