https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-11-6-election-aftermath-where-do-the-democrats-go-from-here
Donald Trump has now decisively won the presidency. I have a big collection of ideas for him on things to do once he takes office. So far, I’ve been holding off on writing about those ideas, not wanting to get ahead of myself only to then have him lose the election. Now, the gates can open.
But for today, I have another topic to consider: the relatively tiny shift in party control of seats in the House of Representatives. Indeed, the shift is so small that it is not even completely clear at this writing that the Republicans will control the House. (Current betting odds are around 91% that Republicans will retain control.). Why didn’t Trump have any meaningful coattails in the House? The answer to that question can give some insights into how the respective parties’ odds might change the next time out.
Before the election, Republicans were running ahead by a small but consistent margin in the generic ballot for the House. (The so-called “generic ballot” records the response to the question, “If the election for the House were held today, would you vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate in your district?”). In other recent elections, even a slight advantage in the generic ballot has been sufficient to give the Republicans a meaningful House majority. (The reason for this phenomenon is that there is a “natural” gerrymander resulting from the greater concentration of Democrats in heavily one-party districts, mainly in big cities.). So the question is, why were the Republicans unable to capitalize on their generic ballot advantage?
