Iran Coming Apart at the Seams Is the barbaric regime finally, after 45 years, crumbling into dust? by Hugh Fitzgerald
https://www.frontpagemag.com/iran-coming-apart-at-the-seams/
Economically, Iran is in the process of coming apart. Its GDP steadily sinks. More than 40% of Iranians are now living below the poverty line. The rial is at an historic low, having lost 25% of its value just since September; it now stands at 820,000 rials to a dollar. Since the establishment of the Islamic government in 1979, the Iranian currency has undergone an 11,000-fold decline in value.
Politically Iran is on its back foot. It has seen all of its major allies, that were formerly part of Iran’s “Shi’a crescent” — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Assad regime in Syria —fall away. In Gaza, Hamas is being systematically dismantled by the IDF, with 20,000 of its fighters killed and many more wounded. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has been battered by the IDF. Four thousand of its operatives have been killed, thousands more wounded, and 80% of its once-formidable arsenal of rockets and missiles destroyed by the IAF. Hezbollah had to beg for a ceasefire that requires it to remove all of its men and weapons north of the Litani River. In Syria, the rebels have toppled the Assad despotism, and once the loyal ally of Iran, Syria has now become the archenemy of the Islamic Republic, precisely because Iran for so long supported the Assad regime. Iran invested $50 billion in keeping Assad in power; now that $50 billion has gone up in smoke, and the Iranian people are keenly aware of that loss, which has enraged many of them.
More on the current dismal of Iran’s economy, its military weakness, and the growing fury of its population with the regime of the mullahs, can be found here: “$50 billion to Syria vanished into thin air: Unrest in Iran grows over economic turmoil – interview,” by Peled Arbeli, Jerusalem Post, January 10, 2025:
Iran’s public discontent surged in recent weeks as economic hardships, including widespread power outages and rising inflation, fueled calls for change, Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) researcher Benny Sabti told Maariv on Friday.
Sabti began by describing the growing frustration among the Iranian population. “People are very angry with the regime for squandering funds, oil revenues, and resources on Syria, which fell alongside Hezbollah,” he said. “The regime has poured $50 billion into Syria from 2000 until now, all of which vanished into thin air, along with funds sent to Lebanon and other places.” According to Sabti, the Iranian public views this as “a regime failure.”
Sabti believes recent events have given Iranians hope. He pointed to key incidents, such as the reported elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which exposed the Iranian regime’s vulnerabilities, and “the fall of Gaza.” He emphasized: “All of this gives the Iranian public—80% of whom oppose the regime—hope.”…
Most Iranians — 80% of them, according to the Israeli researcher Benny Sabti — oppose the regime and have taken heart from the Israelis’ victories over both Hamas and Hezbollah, for both terror groups are seen, correctly, as allies of the Tehran regime. They have been especially impressed by Mossad’s spectacular ability to assassinate, in the middle of a heavily-guarded guest house in Tehran, the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. These Iranians were pleased when the IAF managed to destroy Iran’s S-300 anti-aircraft systems, and the plant producing fuel for ballistic missiles. They are waiting for an IDF attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which they believe will cause the Iranian leadership to be so publicly humiliated by the “Zionist entity,” as to lose all face, and be vulnerable to being toppled by a popular uprising.
Sabti described worsening living conditions: “There are daily power outages lasting six to seven hours in Tehran and across the country, with even longer outages in remote areas. Water shortages follow the power cuts, and air pollution worsens because there isn’t enough clean gas to heat factories and homes. Instead, they burn ship fuel, which causes severe pollution until it’s stopped. The result is freezing temperatures and city shutdowns.” He added: “On some days, people are forbidden to leave their homes—children, adults, government offices, and banks alike.”…
This is the daily nightmare experienced by Iranians, a nightmare of constant and long power outages, water shortages, a spike in water pollution, a lack of clean gas replaced by ship fuel to heat buildings that results in still greater air pollution, which then leads to heating being cut off, and ordinary Iranians enduring freezing temperatures are told to remain at home in order not to be out breathing the polluted air in the cities.
The regime is so worried about more street demonstrations that it now views as inevitable, that it has now been drilling the security services to deal with such manifestations of popular fury. But clubbing protesters so as to end their demonstrations will only serve to further enrage the demonstrators.
Militarily, Iran is weaker now than it has been at any time since the ayatollahs came to power in 1979. It has been stripped of its former military allies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, the first two because of actions taken by the IDF, the third because the HTS rebels almost bloodlessly overturned the Assad regime, sending Bashar fleeing to Moscow. The Israeli Air Force has stripped Iran of its S-300 anti-aircraft defenses, and of the manufacturing plant where it made fuel for its ballistic missiles.
The 80% of Iranians who now wish for an end to the regime are hoping that Trump will reimpose the sanctions on Iran that Biden had lifted, turning the screws still tighter on the Iranian economy, which will, in turn, increase the level of disaffection with the regime. And they are even hoping for Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, which will be such a public humiliation that could weaken the regime to the point that it will, after 45 years, finally crumble into dust.
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