RUTHFULLY YOURS

The “Tariff Wars” have begun.

China’s State Council Tariff Commission released a list of 72 items that would fall under the 10% tariffs. Much of that list was related to agriculture, including several types of tractors, harvesters and other large pieces of farming equipment.

The list of U.S. imports that will be subject to 15% tariffs was far shorter, listing just eight types of coal and natural gas.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) President Xi Jinping might gin up further crises to test the mettle of President Donald J. Trump, just as he has tested the resolve of all recent incoming administrations.

Most have tried to defuse these confrontations by accommodating China, rewarding it with “incentives” and “concessions,” and mostly backing down. Intellectual property theft and fentanyl poisoning have been out of control for some time. In addition, the Biden administration cancelled the China Initiative “to counter Beijing’s theft of American intellectual property;” permitted (after a name change) the continued operation on US soil of Confucius Institutes — which had been closed down under the prior Trump administration for being “soft power propaganda missions”; allowed illegal CCP police stations throughout the US, and the “spy balloon” to gather intelligence from America’s most sensitive military sites. Xi may be more careful with Trump, who has already successfully rebutted a few attempts to impose his will.

The US also has a history of apologizing.

George H.W. Bush’s decision to dispatch National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft to China shortly after the June 1989 Tiananmen massacre was meant to reassure CCP leaders that, after a decent interval, things would return to normal. This turned out, unfortunately, to be the wrong move. Bush himself crafted the humiliating US posture by informing China only days after Tiananmen, “now is the time to look beyond the moment to important and enduring aspects of this relationship, vital to the United States.”

President Bill Clinton, after campaign charges that Bush had been soft on China, did an about-face. Clinton promised that if China improved its human rights record, he would endorse its request to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Clinton also provided Communist China with rocket technology, ostensibly “to give China incentives to honor their commitments,” according to a White House official at the time. Of course, a rocket launcher that can launch a communications satellite can also launch ballistic missiles.

Clinton, furthermore, bypassed Congress by issuing an executive decision in support of Beijing’s WTO application, and followed up this policy by rewarding China with a Most Favored Nation trade status.

President George W. Bush apologized to repatriate 24 American servicemen who had crash-landed on China’s island province of Hainan. The reason for the US reconnaissance plane’s emergency landing, however, has been reckless behavior by the pilot of a Chinese J-8 interceptor aircraft. The Chinese pilot had flown within 20 feet of the US plane, before clipping its wing, resulting in the death of the China’s pilot. After 11 days, the Chinese finally released the US personnel, but not before Bush had apologized twice, once for the death of the Chinese pilot and a second time for violating Chinese airspace. CCP propaganda outlets circulated throughout the world “The Letter of the Two Sorries“.

President Barack Obama, during his initial meeting with Xi, seemed confident that he had elicited a pledge from the Chinese dictator not to militarize several artificial islands that China had built in the Pacific. Xi then wasted no time militarizing them. Several of these artificial islands now have air defense missile batteries, naval gun sites and long-range bomber airfields. Obama’s administration, after issuing a few verbal denunciations, appeared to accept China’s fait accompli. When China seized the Scarborough Shoal, an island also claimed by the Philippines, a US ally, Obama again did nothing.

President Donald Trump, in his first administration, finally broke this cycle of allowing the US to be deceived and humiliated. He cancelled Defense Secretary James Mattis’s planned trip to Beijing after the Chinese destroyer Lanzhou came within 45 yards of the destroyer, USS Decatur in September 2018.

China’s latest manufactured crisis appeared to be already in its opening act. The aggressor was China; the victim, the Philippines, again.

Throughout 2023 and 2024, Chinese Coast Guard boats were harassing Philippine fishermen and research vessels that were searching for hydrocarbons and natural gas deposits in waters claimed by China, which seems to claim a lot of waters, such as “almost all” of the South China Sea, as well as land, including Tibet; Arunachal Pradesh in northern India; the “near-Arctic,” and Taiwan, which has never been part of mainland China.

In another maneuver, a Chinese vessel fired water cannons at three Philippine boats, one of which suffered major engine damage. Still another incident reportedly involved Chinese personnel attacking Filipino sailors with lasers.

China’s most recent maneuvers appear to be trying to signal to Washington that China will not back off its exorbitant claims of territorial and maritime sovereignty, despite the recent opening of additional US bases in the Philippines.

Second, Chinese strategic planners may be trying to see if the US is willing to risk a military clash with China over its incursions into the Philippines’ Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ). If the US fails to support its ally by treaty, the Philippines, the CCP propaganda machine and Chinese diplomats will likely seek to sow doubts about US resolve into the capitals of America’s Pacific allies.

China might also want to check if a coalition of Asian nations backed by the United States will be able to derail it from realizing its hegemonic ambitions in the Western Pacific.

Third, if the CCP sees that the new Trump administration is found wanting in its commitment to defend the Philippines’ sovereignty, China might be tempted to engage in adventurous behavior against Taiwan, as well as other properties in the Pacific. China has already effectively taken over the Solomon Islands.

The Trump administration immediately needs to short-circuit all “exploratory” moves by China. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth might order Seventh Fleet and US Pacific Command’s air assets to strengthen their presence near the Philippines and the Pacific. Any firm message to China that America will stand by its allies throughout free Asia would be of help.

Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.