Will Iran Seize Its Only Chance with President Trump? Not agreeing to serious talks with the US to end its nuclear weapons program could prove disastrous for Iran. By Fred Fleitz
https://amgreatness.com/2025/04/11/will-iran-seize-its-only-chance-with-president-trump/
President Trump stunned the world this week when he announced that the U.S. would hold direct talks with Iran on its nuclear weapons program this weekend. The president has given Iran two months to negotiate a new agreement to end its nuclear program and said at the press conference, “I think if the talks aren’t successful with Iran… Iran is going to be in great danger, and I hate to say it.”
The talks are scheduled to take place on Saturday in Oman. The U.S. will reportedly be represented by Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Iran’s chief negotiator reportedly will be Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Trump said in response to a reporter’s question about whether he would use military force if Iran refused to agree to a nuclear deal, “If it requires military, we’re going to have military.” The President later added that Israel would “be the leader” of a military strike on Iran if nuclear talks fail.
After Trump’s announcement, however, Iranian officials indicated their nation might not engage in serious negotiations when they said Iran would only agree to indirect talks with the U.S. mediated by Oman. Foreign Minister Araghchi added that his government primarily wanted the talks to rule out the use of U.S. military force against Iran.
An administration source told me Iran’s resistance to direct and meaningful talks to end its nuclear weapons program might mean the talks will not take place, at least this weekend. This could lead to Iran suffering severe repercussions from the U.S. and possibly Israel by mid-year.
Why Trump Believes Addressing Threats from Iran Is Urgent
President Trump has moved fast to address threats from Iran because they surged to a dangerous level—especially concerning its nuclear weapons program—due to the Biden administration’s inept Iran policies that amounted to appeasement.
Although the “maximum pressure” sanctions of Trump’s first term nearly bankrupted Iran, President Biden ended this policy and refused to enforce sanctions against Iran. As a result, Iranian revenues grew by an estimated $100 billion during the Biden years. The Iranian regime used this windfall to fund its proxy terrorist groups, including Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels, and Hamas.
Iran’s nuclear weapons program also made enormous advances during the Biden administration due to increased Iranian government revenue and Biden’s unsuccessful attempts to revive the fraudulent 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration, the JCPOA. Trump wisely withdrew from this agreement in 2018.
During the first year of the Biden presidency, Iran enriched uranium to 60% uranium-235—just below weapons-grade—for the first time. Iran also developed and deployed advanced uranium centrifuges throughout the Biden administration and significantly increased the size of its enriched uranium stockpile.
As a result, the number of nuclear weapons Iran could potentially fuel increased significantly during the Biden administration.
Iran can now produce enough highly enriched uranium to fuel 17 nuclear weapons in four months and enough nuclear fuel for its first weapon in less than a week, according to a February 2025 report by the Institute for Science and International Security.
By contrast, at the end of the Trump administration, the institute assessed that Iran could only produce enough nuclear fuel for two weapons: one weapon in about 3 months and a second in 5.5 months.
Although Iran can currently produce enough nuclear fuel for its first nuclear weapon in less than a week, the Institute for Science and International Security believes it would take Iran about six months before it could conduct a nuclear test or have a crude weapon. Most experts believe Iran would need a year to 18 months to have an operational nuclear weapon after it produces enough nuclear fuel for its first bomb.
The threat from Iran’s missile and drone programs also surged during the Biden years. This included test launches of space-launch vehicles (which experts believe are covert ICBM tests), medium-range missiles, short-range missiles, cruise missiles, attack drones, and a purported hypersonic missile. Iran also claimed to have new advanced ballistic and cruise missiles designed to evade Israeli missile defenses.
Although Israel’s advanced Iron Dome missile defense system successfully defended against two large Iranian missile and drone attacks in 2024, continued advances in Iran’s missile technology and the production of large numbers of missiles and drones threaten to overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses.
Is Iran Ready to Strike a New Nuclear Deal with the United States?
Iran’s decision to agree to nuclear talks—even indirect talks—is a significant policy shift because Tehran refused to engage in any negotiations with the first Trump administration. Whether Iran is interested in a new nuclear deal with the U.S. and whether it will negotiate in good faith remains unclear.
Iran’s willingness to join talks with the U.S. probably is due to their belief that recent aggressive U.S. airstrikes against the Houthi rebels, a massive buildup of U.S. military assets in the region, a much closer U.S.-Israel relationship since Trump’s inauguration in January, and President Trump’s assertive leadership mean massive airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities by the U.S. and Israel are increasingly likely. Iran also knows crippling U.S. sanctions against its crumbling economy are certain.
Iranian leaders also probably agreed to nuclear talks because Israeli airstrikes in 2024 proved that Iranian air defenses are woefully inadequate and that Israel has the capability to attack and destroy any target in Iran. In addition, Iran’s regional influence has been significantly undermined by the enormous losses suffered by Hamas in the Israel-Hamas War and Israel’s obliteration of Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon.
Iran has a long history of agreeing to negotiations on its nuclear program to offset international pressure and to deter possible attacks by the United States and Israel. However, it has always used such negotiations to delay international action and to win weak agreements to limit or reduce its nuclear program that it later fails to honor.
Despite President Biden’s eagerness to revive and improve the JCPOA nuclear deal, Iran refused direct talks with the U.S. Moreover, Iran was so unreasonable in indirect talks that, despite extremely generous concessions offered by Biden officials, they were unable to strike an agreement with Tehran to reinstitute the JCPOA.
Given Iran’s history of manipulating nuclear talks and major gains in its nuclear weapons and missile programs during the Biden administration, new talks convened by the Trump administration aimed at ending and dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programs will be difficult. If an agreement is possible, getting one will be time-consuming and take more than a few months.
Iran’s current position on talks with the United States is not promising. Iranian statements that it will refuse direct talks and wants the talks to focus on the U.S. agreeing not to use military force against Iran could indicate that Tehran intends to use these negotiations to buy time and to portray itself to the international media as a victim and the United States as a bully.
It is essential that Trump officials not fall for these tactics that Iran has used successfully with previous Republican and Democratic administrations to manipulate nuclear talks. President Trump should stick to his two-month deadline for a serious deal to denuclearize Iran and end its missile program. The agenda for the negotiations should be limited to Iran giving up its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for sanctions relief. U.S. military force should not be taken off the table.
U.S. negotiators also should not allow Iran to disrespect the United States by refusing to meet with them face-to-face.
Given their history and the advanced state of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, Iran’s fanatical mullahs may not be interested in striking an agreement with the U.S. This means they will face crippling sanctions that may bankrupt their country and possibly U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that will devastate Iran’s nuclear and missile programs as well as its military capabilities.
I believe President Trump wants to exhaust all diplomatic options before he considers using military force against Iran. If an agreement is possible, it will take time and require further demonstrations of U.S. force and resolve to convince Iran’s leaders to give up their nuclear and missile programs. Given how vulnerable Iran is right now and President Trump’s strong and decisive leadership on the world stage, the moment might be right to strike such a historic agreement.
Fred Fleitz is vice chair of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security. He previously served as National Security Council chief of staff, CIA analyst, and a House Intelligence Committee staff member.
Comments are closed.
