RUTHFULLY YOURS

Both online and print media are full of talk about an economic recession, one that’s either already here or ready to hit. How much of the recession angst is driven by the media? Are Americans worried about a recession now, and if so, who will get the blame? The I&I/TIPP Poll sought answers to these questions in its April survey.

The national online poll, taken by 1,452 adults from March 26 to March 28, first asked this:

“A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. In 2022, this happened — but many in the media denied it was a recession under President Biden. Was the media justified or not?”

Among those taking the poll, 31% responded “Yes, other factors meant it wasn’t truly a recession,” while 34% selected “No, they covered for Biden despite meeting the definition.” A significant number — 23% — answered “I didn’t follow it closely,” while 10% said the were “Not sure.”

But, as usual, political affiliation (a key determinant in past surveys of how people feel about media bias overall) shows significant differences.

Among Democrats, 43% said the Biden downturn wasn’t a recession, while just 28% of Republicans and 22% of independents agreed. Meanwhile, only 18% of Democrats felt the media “covered” for Biden, versus 51% of Republicans and 35% of independents.

I&I/TIPP then asked a follow-up question related to the current economy under President Trump:

“Some in the media are now calling the economy a recession under Trump, even before two quarters of negative growth. Do you think this coverage is fair or not?”

This time, 41% overall responded “Yes – economic signs justify the concern,” while only 32% said “No – they’re rushing to declare a recession to hurt Trump.” Another 12% said, “The media always spin economic news.” And 16% were not sure.

But again, the answers were fraught with political influence.

Democrats, for example, were overwhelmingly (62%) likely to say that current economic “signs justify the concern” for a recession, versus only 28% of Republicans and 34% of independents.

Those responses flip for the “no” answer, with only 14% of Democrats saying the media is “rushing to declare a recession” for Trump, compared to 49% of Republicans and 33% of independents.

Finally, those responding to the poll were asked: “If the economy were to enter a recession, whom would you hold primarily responsible?”

Here, the answers were a bit more definitive: 48% said “President Trump and his administration’s policies,” while only 29% answered “Former President Biden and his administration’s policies.” Another 10% countered, “External factors unrelated to either administration.”

The political breakdown was predictable: 72% of Dems blame Trump, while just 32% of Republicans and 44% of indie voters do. Conversely, just 11% of Dems would blame Biden, versus 49% of GOP voters and 27% of independents and third-party voters.

“External factors”? This response never gets above 13% response from any demographic group.

All of this prompts the bigger question: What is a recession? How should a recession be defined? How can we debate something that isn’t even agreed upon? And who should get the blame for a recession? The answers aren’t easy.

For years, the simple definition used by many on Wall Street, economists and the media was that a two-quarter consecutive decline in real gross domestic product marks a recession. Simple.

But that’s not exactly the case. There’s a nonpartisan group of economists, part of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), that has the formal job of defining what a U.S. recession is.

But the NBER’s definition is somewhat nebulous, providing lots of wiggle room in deciding whether a recession has happened, or not: “The NBER‘s traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

What is a “significant” decline? It has been argued that a two-quarter drop in GDP on an annualized basis is both “significant,” “spread across the economy,” and “lasts more than a few months.”

That’s exactly what happened during President Biden’s term in office. GDP fell 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022, followed by a 0.6% decline in the second quarter. But, to the befuddlement of some, the NBER punted on it being a recession. And the media let it drop.

In its defense, the NBER usually doesn’t judge a downturn until well after it’s over, and it looks at dozens of indicators in doing its job. And despite the media’s current fixation on a possible recession, the NBER might again decide that a mere GDP downturn isn’t enough to call it an official downturn.

But hasn’t stopped the media, which seem positively gleeful at the possibility that President Trump would have a recession. So they’re looking for “signs of recession.”

As a recent Wall Street Journal piece remarked:

“Call it a new recession indicator: Young women who not long ago splashed out on self care, tickets to Taylor Swift’s Eras tour and “Barbie” are pulling back on their spending.

“Searches in the U.S. for “press on nails” are up 10% since February, and “blonde to brunette hair” is up 17% in the same period, according to Google.”

Then there’s this headline on Mashable: “TikTok wants me to host a dinner party. Is that an actual recession indicator?”

Others in the media have joined in, looking everywhere for recession signs.

There’s even a swarm of tweets now, many humorous in nature, looking at unorthodox “recession indicators.” They range from “More People Are Bringing Lunch to Work,” to “walked into a 7/11 and heard the phrase ‘real estate investment’ ” to “Bruce Springsteen to release 7 ‘Lost Albums’ containing over 80 never-before-heard songs.”

More seriously, many financial analysts, investors and economists worry that uncertainty over President Trump’s tariffs, which recently have roiled financial markets, could take down the economy. Uncertainty, they warn, is a kind of tax.

Still others, mostly Democrats, express worry about Trump’s DOGE-driven federal spending cuts, since government outlays are included in GDP.

Concerned? The truth is, the last 10 recessions all have been preceded by two things: One, a two-quarter GDP decline (not including Biden’s non-recession call). And, two, an inverted yield curve, which is what happens when short-term interest rates on U.S. treasuries are higher than long-term rates, a sign that investors have become incredibly risk averse.

That’s highly relevant right now, since during the President Biden years, the yield curve inverted in July of 2022 and remained that way until late 2024, becoming the longest yield-curve inversion in history. Yet, in the mainstream media, it barely warrants mention, outside of the financial press.

Yet, if a recession comes, as seems possible, Trump will almost certainly get blamed, despite the yield curve inversion happening under Biden. Democrats, as the I&I/TIPP Poll shows, seem eager to blame Trump for anything that happens on his watch, whether he causes it or not.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.