Iran’s Dangerous Nuclear Dance Will anything stop Biden from trying to revive the flawed deal?
We’re not sure Iran could do anything to make President Biden give up his pursuit of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, and Iran is acting as if it agrees. This could explain Tehran’s escalations in response to U.S. concessions.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced Sunday that Iran would allow its inspectors to service surveillance cameras monitoring Iranian nuclear sites. This is no great breakthrough. In February the regime began blocking the agency from inspecting several nuclear facilities in person, though it cut a deal to keep some monitoring equipment. The latest agreement won’t guarantee access to this data, which could be deleted at any time, but a joint Iran-IAEA statement still noted their “spirit of cooperation and mutual trust.”
The 2015 deal’s apologists will say that this is proof Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi may be ready to return to the negotiating table, but this move is really about keeping his options open. Iran offered the token concession over the weekend to avoid an IAEA board censure, which theoretically could lead to United Nations sanctions. The U.S., Germany, France and the U.K. had been considering a rebuke over the inspection intransigence, but don’t hold your breath.
The Islamic Republic has already done plenty to earn a censure. Much of the media attention has focused on Iran’s expanding its nuclear deal violations such as activating advanced centrifuges and enriching uranium at higher concentrations.
But the regime also has stonewalled a separate IAEA investigation into undeclared nuclear sites in the country. This points to a fundamental flaw in the nuclear agreement: No one knows the true extent of the Iranian nuclear program, let alone what’s happening at the declared sites. The sense of security the deal provided the West was illusory, but the sanctions relief was real.
Mr. Biden already has downgraded America’s relationship with Iranian rival Saudi Arabia, ended the “snap back” sanctions fight with Iran at the U.N. and pulled some restrictions against Iranian officials. Multiple media reports say American negotiators offered sanctions relief unrelated to nuclear issues at several rounds of talks in Vienna this year, but Iran has declined to resume talks. It may be holding out for more concessions, and the Biden Administration has shown it will offer them.
Arms-control agreements work best among friendly nations. When dealing with adversaries, the agreement is only as good as the verification and monitoring measures that come with it. An IAEA censure would send a message that Mr. Biden understands this basic principle.
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