Biden’s Red-Line Moment With Iran Blinken promises a swift and decisive response, but will Biden back it up?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-red-line-moment-with-iran-9e1bbf5a?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Tuesday that the U.S. would respond “swiftly and decisively” to any attack on American forces from Iran or its proxies. That’s a welcome message aimed at deterring the mullahs in Tehran and their agents. But will the President enforce the red line he appears to be drawing? He hasn’t so far.
“The United States does not seek conflict with Iran,” Mr. Blinken said at the United Nations. “We do not want this war to widen. But if Iran or its proxies attack U.S. personnel anywhere, make no mistake. We will defend our people.” Mr. Blinken’s remarks are the sharpest U.S. warning to Iran so far, and from the most senior U.S. official. They go beyond President Biden’s previous vague warnings of “don’t” to discourage Hezbollah or Iran from getting involved in the Hamas-Israel war.
Clearly the White House is worried, and it should be. Even the Administration has been obliged to acknowledge that Iranian clients have used drones and rockets to attack U.S. forces in the Middle East more than a dozen times in the past week.
White House spokesman John Kirby said Monday that Iran is “in some cases, actively facilitating these attacks” on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria. Mr. Kirby also acknowledged that “Iran’s goal is to maintain some level of deniability here, but we’re not going to allow them to do that.” A senior defense official noted this week that “when you see this uptick in activity and attacks” in the Middle East, “there’s Iranian fingerprints all over it.”
The obvious implication of Mr. Blinken’s remarks is that if American forces are attacked, the U.S. will respond with military force. Multiple reports suggest that Iran’s clients are planning more attacks on U.S. positions in the Middle East. The Pentagon has dispatched more air defenses and on Tuesday announced an F-16 deployment to complement other fighter aircraft in the region. One carrier strike group is already operating in the area and another is on the way. So when will the swift and decisive U.S. response arrive?
Mr. Biden no doubt remembers Barack Obama’s “red line” warning to Syria in 2012 over the use of chemical weapons that went unenforced when Bashar al-Assad crossed it. The fallout from that failure of deterrence and follow-through included Vladimir Putin’s intervention to save the Assad regime, then his invasions of Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
The Biden Administration wants to deter a second front against Israel from Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Syria. But failing to respond to Iran’s many attacks, even when there are so far no U.S. troop casualties, is an invitation to Iran to keep calling the U.S. bluff.
This could invite the provocation the White House is trying so hard to avoid. One risk is that Iran or its proxies will eventually kill Americans in these attacks, which might require an even greater use of U.S. force and would be damaging politically. Or the U.S. might have to intervene to help Israel defeat Hezbollah.
Iran is using its proxies to test U.S. resolve. The more they attack without Iran paying a price, the more likely that Iran will raise the stakes. The paradox Mr. Biden has to appreciate: The most stabilizing move for the region would be restoring America as a deterrent power.
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