RUTHFULLY YOURS

The Russia-North Korea-China relationship is not an equilateral triangle but an evolving alliance with conflicting interests, and reportedly beginning to show signs of fracture and lack of trust.

Now that North Korean troops have joined Russian forces in fighting a democratic country, Ukraine, the global ramifications of this East-West coalitional warfare have darkened. An alliance of aggressive dictatorships are directly confronting the free West.

Western intelligence agencies have reported that North Korea has deployed about 3,000 troops in the Kursk region of Russia, now occupied by Ukraine. North Korea has reportedly dispatched an additional 7,000 troops to Russia.

The deployment of these North Korean troops is supposedly justified by Moscow and Pyongyang through the joint Russia-North Korea Defense Treaty, signed on June 19, 2024 and ratified this month, stipulating that each signatory will come to the military assistance of the other if under attack by a third country.

The increased military-to-military links between North Korea and Russia also have regional ramifications, and China appears to have indicated to Moscow that the once heralded Sino-Russian “No Limits Alliance” may have some limits, after all.

Chinese President Xi Jinping apparently counseled Russian President Vladimir Putin not to visit North Korea immediately before or after visiting China. Xi’s reported concern was that he did not want North Korea’s “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong Un to be able to exploit such visits, thus gaining prestige or legitimacy as a great power.

Xi might also want to keep tight reins on any unpredictable moves by Kim that could destabilize the Korean Peninsula is ways that might counter Chinese interests.

Xi is possibly also concerned that a Russia short of cash could give North Korea advanced weapons and perhaps even nuclear technology, especially if Kim specifically requests them. China has not yet provided Russia’s war effort against Ukraine with weapons systems, but Beijing could already be chafing at the knowledge that Pyongyang has delivered ballistic missiles to Moscow.

Russia, however, might view its enhanced defense links with North Korea as a gain. The Russian military, since its invasion of Ukraine, has reportedly sustained about 600,000 killed and wounded. The arrival of North Korean troops may have helped the Kremlin’s leadership postpone announcing another mobilization of Russian recruits for its war effort. One report suggests that, ultimately, North Korea may dispatch 100,000 troops to Russia.

Moscow has already welcomed tens of thousands of North Korean laborers to work on construction projects. Another report indicates that Russia prefers North Koreans to Central Asian Muslim workers and is planning to import 500,000 North Korean laborers.

Historic relations between Russia and China have been fraught with conflict, particularly during the 19^th century. Russia still controls hundreds of thousands of square miles of former Chinese territory. These lands were taken by Czarist Russia from China’s Ching Dynasty primarily in the 1800s, as a consequence of what the Chinese call “Unequal Treaties.”

China, underscoring its continuing territorial claims against Russia, recently published new maps featuring the Chinese names of cities in eastern Russia. Many farmers from China have already migrated to Russian Far East territories.

Moreover, there are vast stretches of lands in Russian Siberia that are virtually unoccupied, near a teeming Chinese population of 90 million on the other side of the border, in China’s northern provinces.

Putin, as the owner of the largest nuclear weapons stockpile on the planet, may also be less than enchanted by the projected image of Russia as a junior partner anywhere.

China nevertheless views Russia as principally a source of oil and raw materials. The Kremlin might hope to rejuvenate itself by re-asserting its failing primacy in Central Asia amidst the independent post-Soviet countries.

These tensions among this Eurasian alliance of North Korea, Russia and China provide an opportunity for the incoming administration in the United States.

Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.