Trump Has an Opportunity in Asia Central Asia has long been a blind spot in U.S. foreign policy. by Ivan Sascha Sheehan
https://www.frontpagemag.com/trump-has-an-opportunity-in-asia/
Marco Rubio’s confirmation for Secretary of State is most noteworthy for its bipartisan acceptance. While his confirmation hearing did not feature clickbait shouting matches, it did include a unique vision for furthering American interests in a region that the United States has largely neglected: Central Asia. During his testimony, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) discussed the region’s potential for realizing President Donald Trump’s policy priorities, especially with regard to energy and containing China.
Central Asia – which includes the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – must be a strategic focus of American policy. The region offers a wealth of existing and untapped energy resources, both hydrocarbons and the critical minerals vital for high-tech and green energy. It is bordered by China, Afghanistan, Iran, and Russia – making it crucial to many of America’s core foreign policy priorities.
However, Central Asia has long been a blind spot in U.S. foreign policy. Within the labyrinthine bowels of the State Department, it has been repeatedly shuffled between different bureaus. American diplomats and experts working on the region often do so as a byproduct of prior education in Soviet studies, insufficiently grasping the region’s needs and challenges. U.S. policy in the region needs a shakeup.
After the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States focused on the region’s most urgent necessities. Relations with Central Asia initially focused on denuclearization, economic liberalization, and arms control. After 9/11, the focus shifted towards removing the Taliban in Afghanistan, rooting out al Qaeda, and the Global War on Terror. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian states supported these security efforts by working alongside the United States.
Central Asia remains receptive to American foreign policy. When the trade war with China began, Central Asian states did not help China avoid tariffs. Many states in the region are eager for trade and investment, not handouts, and even when the United States erected tariffs, they maintained a low-tariff regime and welcomed American exports. This is not just for economic reasons but geopolitical ones: to reduce dependency on Russia and China.
Despite all of this, no U.S. president has ever prioritized the region enough to visit it. Meanwhile Russia and Chinahave made significant inroads.
By carefully practicing “multi-vector diplomacy” to balance relations with Russia, China, and the West, Central Asian states have demonstrated an unwillingness to submit to Moscow. All five either abstained or did not show up to vote when the UN General Assembly condemned Russia for invading Ukraine in 2022. Other Russian efforts include the construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan and putting pressure on the region to facilitate a north-south transportation corridor, which China is avoiding.
Nevertheless, China has eclipsed Russia in the region. It was in Kazakhstan that Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the Belt and Road Initiative. When former Russian President Dimitry Medvedev questioned Kazakh sovereignty, China guaranteed it. Xi followed this by ensuring his first post-Covid trip abroad was to Central Asia. Then, during the May 2023 Xi’an summit, Xi personally chaired a meeting with all five Central Asian leaders and unveiled a grand development plan for the region. Since then, China has only deepened its influence.
By contrast, Washington’s engagement with the region lags far behind that of Beijing. Thankfully, newly confirmed Secretary of State Rubio appears to understand this dynamic. One way the United States has hobbled itself is with a law that Rubio correctly identified in his testimony as a “relic of the Cold War” – the Jackson-Vanik Amendment. This 1974 legislation was initially designed to punish non-market economies by denying them permanent normal trade relations (PNTR). It was aimed at the Soviet Union’s refusal to allow its Jewish population to emigrate freely.
This law, which can only be removed by Congress, punishes Central Asian states for the policies of the USSR. While this relic remains, American companies cannot offer an economic alternative to China. Without PNTR, the region’s critical minerals will feed China’s monopoly on rare earths refining and send most of their commodities to Beijing. The Trump administration will also find it difficult to realize its energy objectives without engaging with the region – home to abundant supplies of oil, gas, and uranium.
This can be accomplished via the Middle Corridor, a vital route from Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian and the Caucasus that bypasses Russia and Iran. Kazakhstan’s oil could be more effectively brought onto the global market without artificial Russian bottlenecks. Kazakhstan, the world’s single largest uranium producer, and Uzbekistan combined produce more than 53% of the world’s uranium ore. Unlocking that ore would counter China’s recent push for uranium in the region and help future American nuclear initiatives.
Following Trump’s inauguration, Central Asian states signaled their interest in cooperating with the new administration. A senior source at the State Department confirms that Kazakhstan stated its complete willingness to cooperate with the Trump administration in its immigration policy, including the repatriation of undocumented immigrants. This is not something America’s NATO partners have done, and it fits with its past policy of coordinating the repatriation of Jihadists from Syria.
If the Trump team is truly dedicated to competing with China in Central Asia, there are actionable steps they can undertake. The White House must work with Congress to advance the bipartisan consensus to repeal Jackson-Vanik from all Central Asian states and boost American companies’ access to energy, strategic minerals, and uranium mining and enrichment. Congress must also act and provide appropriate funding to support the Middle Corridor, enabling U.S. companies to compete with China and Russia. Trump should also plan a trip to the region, becoming the first American president to visit while in office.
Engaging with Central Asia would give the new administration a win by delivering the United States a strategic advantage in its competition with China, while also advancing American energy objectives at home. U.S. officials would be wise to seize the opportunity.
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