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Iran is moving at an alarming speed to develop nuclear weapons and advancing its uranium enrichment at an unprecedented rate. The latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) provides a chilling confirmation of Iran’s intentions.

According to the IAEA, Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity — just a short step away from weapons-grade material — has increased by 92.5 kilograms since November. This brings its total stockpile of highly enriched uranium to approximately 275 kilograms, an amount sufficient to produce at least six nuclear bombs if further enriched to 90%. Iran has also been installing more advanced centrifuges, increasing its capacity to enrich uranium faster than ever.

This rapid escalation of Iran’s nuclear activities is not a surprise. The mullahs’ most crucial regional ally, the Assad regime in Syria, has collapsed, significantly diminishing Tehran’s strategic influence in the Middle East. The downfall of Assad in Syria was largely thanks to Israel’s successful military campaigns against Hezbollah, which left the Iranian proxy too weakened to support the Syrian dictator against opposition forces.

For years, Iran relied on its alliance with Assad to maintain a foothold in Syria, using the country as a corridor to supply weapons and support to Hezbollah and other proxies. Now, with Assad gone — and Turkey and its proxy, Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s HTS — in control of Syria — Tehran finds itself increasingly isolated. So the regime has been working tirelessly to join the exclusive nuclear club, knowing that possessing nuclear weapons will serve as a powerful deterrent and guarantee its survival.

Beyond Syria, Iran’s other key proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, also suffered devastating blows from Israel’s military operations. Hamas, which launched its terrorist war against Israel on October 7, 2023, has been crippled by Israeli airstrikes and ground operations. Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy in Lebanon, has faced sustained attacks as well, with many of its top commanders killed or forced into hiding. Without its regional network of militant groups at full strength, Iran is losing much of the leverage it once had to project power across the Middle East. In its weakened state, the regime is desperately seeking an insurance policy: nuclear weapons.

Compounding the regime’s strategic desperation is its worsening economic crisis. US President Donald J. Trump has reimposed the “maximum pressure” policy, which hits Iran’s economy hard. Adding to this is a severe energy crisis. Iran, despite being rich in oil and gas, is experiencing nationwide electricity blackouts that have crippled industries and essential services. As of December 2024, nearly 50% of Iran’s industrial parks had shut down due to power outages and causing significant job losses. Due to a lack of electricity, government offices, banks, and schools in major cities have been forced to close for days at a time. The government has even begun rationing energy in Tehran and other urban centers, sparking further frustration among its public. The regime’s mismanagement of resources and corruption has only worsened the crisis.

With its economy in shambles and domestic outrage mounting, Iran’s leaders see nuclear weapons as their best hope for survival. Authoritarian regimes in crisis often turn to military escalation to distract from internal problems and consolidate power. The Iranian regime seems to be following that playbook, and appears to believe that nuclear weapons will give it leverage to silence opposition at home and deter any foreign intervention that could threaten its rule.

Given the current trajectory, it is clear that sanctions alone will not stop the Iranian regime from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. The West must take action.

If no one else steps up, Israel will. Israel has already and bravely demonstrated in the past—through its successful strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria’s secret nuclear site in 2007 — that it is willing and capable of taking out nuclear threats. The Israeli government, as well as Trump and his team, have made it clear that they will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Their militaries are likely preparing for the possibility of a “visit.”

At the very least, the West, including the European Union, must for once stand firmly behind Israel. The task is not just about protecting Israel, Europe and the US; it is about preventing a nuclear-armed dictatorship that funds global terrorism –and sets off the mother of all arms-races throughout the Middle East. The US and Europe must offer full diplomatic, intelligence, military, and logistical support. Weakness or hesitation at such a critical moment will only embolden Iran and other adversaries.

Just like North Korea, Iran’s rulers clearly believe that nuclear weapons will shield them from regime change, and allow them to continue their support for terrorism with no consequences. The world cannot afford to let this happen. A nuclear-armed Iran poses an existential threat not only to the “Little Satan,” Israel, and the “Great Satan,” the US, but to all the oil-rich countries in the Middle East – in addition to emboldening terrorist groups worldwide. The least the West can do is help to prevent one of the most dangerous regimes on Earth from obtaining weapons of mass destruction – before it proceeds to a nuclear breakout.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu