The outcome of the US midterm November 4, 2014 elections – for all 435 House seats, 36 (of the 100) Senate seats, 36 (of the 50) Governors and 87 (of the 99) State Chambers – will significantly impact the maneuverability of President Obama domestically and internationally: a “lame duck”, or a “bullish,” transformational president. It will, also, impact US-Israel strategic cooperation, particularly the effectiveness of President Obama’s pressure on Israel.
The US midterm elections represent a unique electoral system, which highlights the centrality of the constituent, the concept of limited government, the total independence of the Legislature, and the co-determining and co-equal status of the three branches of government. Unlike the European and Israeli political systems, the US Executive is heavily constrained by the world’s most powerful Legislature (Congress), especially during the second presidential term; even more so if the president’s party does not control both chambers of Congress. Historically, midterm elections do not bode well for the president and his party. Historically, the American constituent and Congress – on both sides of the aisle – have been systematic supporters of the Jewish State; frequently in defiance of US presidents.
The thundering potential of the “6th year itch” elections was recently demonstrated in 1994 (the GOP revolution: 54 House and 8 Senate seats), 2006 (a DEM sweep: 31 House and 5 Senate seats) and 2010 (a DEM crush: 63 House and 6 Senate seats). The core cause of these tidal waves was the plunge of presidential approval ratings, which nationalized the elections, triggering a ripple effect into House and Senate elections.
If there is a decisive outcome in the November 2014 midterm election, it will be a direct result of President Obama’s plummeting approval ratings, which has become the most critical issue of the upcoming election. Obama has been transformed into an “anchor-chained” – and not a “coattail” – president, significantly undermining Democratic candidates. According to Time Magazine, “after President Bush had similar poor approval ratings in 2006, Democrats enjoyed a wave election that gave them control of Congress….”
A perceived presidential responsibility for a Democratic defeat in the Senate races would further undermine Obama’s clout among Capitol Hill Democrats, who forced him to oppose Israel’s condemnation by UN Security Council resolution in 2011, and to release committed funds for the “Iron Dome” (missile defense) during the recent war in Gaza.