The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham’s lightning campaign to conquer Iraq has renewed a jihadist drama between Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of al Qaeda’s central leadership, and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the secretive leader of ISIS. During the past year, these two arch-terrorists have been at loggerheads over al-Baghdadi’s refusal to limit his operations to Iraq, leading to intense clashes between Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Zawahiri’s sanctioned al Qaeda branch in Syria, and ISIS.
Many observers have read al-Baghdadi’s successes in Iraq and his defiance of al-Zawahiri as reason to herald a coup within the al Qaeda network. That’s still premature. But unless the international community succeeds in pressuring Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government to abandon its Iranian-influenced sectarian tactics, al-Baghdadi could very well take the helm of a reinvigorated global jihadist movement.
For the time being, al-Baghdadi’s impressive gains in Iraq have done little to sway the allegiance of al Qaeda’s key regional branches, which remain broadly loyal to al-Zawahiri. Even after ISIS stormed Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, earlier this month—possibly the greatest jihadist achievement since 9/11—statements of support from prominent jihadists in the region have been few and far between.
Abu Ayad al-Tunisi, the leader of Tunisia’s Ansar al-Shariah network, issued a statement blessing the ISIS gains but stressing the importance of reconciliation between al-Baghdadi and al-Zawahiri. Tunisi’s message is particularly notable as he was previously known for his outspoken support of al-Baghdadi. The pan-Persian Gulf Salafist Ummah movement issued a statement hailing the ISIS gains in Iraq but also calling for unity among jihadist groups. Jaish al-Islam, or Army of Islam, another prominent jihadist group fighting the Shiite-led government in Iraq, refused to mention its partner ISIS by name in its blessing of the current campaign.
Other prominent jihadist leaders—including those of al-Shabaab in East Africa, Ansar al-Shariah in Libya, AQIM and AQAP (al Qaeda franchises in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, respectively), along with the Taliban networks in Central Asia—have all refrained so far from any outburst of support that for al-Baghdadi’s achievements.
Despite his rapid rise, al-Baghdadi has crossed several red lines, and his peers have reproached him. Zawahiri—even amid mounting criticism of his own poor leadership and lack of initiative following the death of Osama bin Laden —remains widely respected across radical networks as the one and only head of al Qaeda, which itself is perceived as the sole umbrella network of global jihad.