http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324240804578418904084666638.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop
JOHN KERRY TO NORTH KOREA…’I’M WARNING YOU NOW…YOU ARE GOING TO GET THE MOTHER OF ALL WARNINGS…..” RSK
Secretary of State John Kerry visited Beijing on the weekend, with no discernible progress in persuading China to drop its support for its North Korean clients. That’s a familiar China bites U.S. story. The more important—and disquieting—news is the dispute over the North Korean threat among U.S. intelligence agencies.
The dispute broke into public view on Thursday when Congressman Doug Lamborn (R., Colo.) read an unclassified sentence from a new assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency. The DIA has concluded with “moderate confidence” that North Korea may have a nuclear warhead small enough to be placed on a ballistic missile. This judgment arrives two months after North Korea tested a nuclear device—its third—and when another test missile launch is expected any day.
That news produced a scramble inside the Obama Administration, with Director of National Intelligence James Clapper issuing a statement telling everyone not to worry. Mr. Clapper quoted a separate Pentagon statement that “it would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully developed and tested the kinds of nuclear weapons referenced in the passage.” And in any case, Mr. Clapper added, “the statement read by the Member is not an Intelligence Community assessment” (his emphasis).
Neither of these not-to-worry statements is reassuring, especially given the U.S. intelligence track record on North Korea. Even if Pyongyang hasn’t so far “fully developed” a missile that can nuke Los Angeles, the point is that it is making major progress. It’s also important to understand that an “intelligence community assessment” is a lowest-common denominator bureaucratic consensus that is often wrong.