http://www.nationalreview.com/node/347150/print
THE SPECIAL ELECTION IN MASSACHUSSETTS: GABRIEL GOMEZ (R) VS MARKEY (D) : KATRINA TRINKO
The best advantage Gabriel Gomez has in the Senate race in Massachusetts is timing.
After Scott Brown’s loss to Elizabeth Warren last fall, few Republicans in Massachusetts hold much hope that a Republican candidate could emerge the winner in a regular election, particularly one that coincides with a presidential election. But the June 25 special election — in which turnout will likely be low — is a different matter.
“Any time a Republican runs for statewide office, it’s an uphill climb, but they have better chances in off-year elections and in special elections than they do in presidential years,” says Ryan Williams, a GOP consultant who worked for Mitt Romney in Massachusetts. “It is virtually impossible as a Republican to win statewide office during a presidential year, given the turnout.”
There is no doubt that Gomez, who won the GOP primary Tuesday, is the underdog. His Democratic rival, 20-term congressman Ed Markey, raised significantly more money than Gomez did and has the advantage in blue Massachusetts. Markey received more votes in the Democratic primary than did all the candidates on the Republican side. Republicans are clear-eyed about the formidable numbers. “We have to win probably 60 to 70 percent of independents, and we have to win 10 to 20 percent of the Democrats,” estimates Brad Dayspring, communications director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
But Republicans are hoping that Gomez can pull off a surprise victory. Eric Fehrnstrom, who advises a super PAC backing Gomez, describes the race as “between Ed Markey, who’s a government insider who’s never really had a job outside of politics, and Gabriel Gomez, a fresh-faced reformer with a compelling personal story and a plan to change Washington.” In Fehrnstrom’s mind, Gomez’s private-sector background (he is a private-equity investor) and military past (he was a Navy SEAL) may help give him an edge on economic and national-security issues, with the latter being fresh in voters’ minds after the bombing at the Boston Marathon.